France vs Italy: model vs market
| Source | France | Draw | Italy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 24% | 41% |
| Market | 66% | 20% | 14% |
| Published | 58% | 21% | 21% |
| Edge | -30% | +4% | +26% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
France vs Italy odds movement
Median bookmaker price on France, 7 snapshots since 2026-09-29.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 1.44 | 1.45 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 4.75 | 4.75 | +0.00 |
| Italy | 6.15 | 6.60 | +0.45 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
France and Italy expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.61
- Attack rating (France / Italy)
- 1.57 / 1.50
- Defence rating (France / Italy)
- 0.89 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
France vs Italy score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: France goals. Columns: Italy goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
France vs Italy goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for France vs Italy
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | France | 58% | 1.72 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.78 | |
| Italy | 21% | 4.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.42 |
| No | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Double chance | 1X (France or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Italy) | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | France win by 2+ | 19% | 5.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
France and Italy recent form
France
4W 0D 2L
Italy
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Italy away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: France at home only, Italy away only.
France vs Italy head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: France 2 · draws 0 · Italy 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-17 | Italy | 1-3 | France | UEFA Nations League |
| 2024-09-06 | France | 1-3 | Italy | UEFA Nations League |
| 2018-06-01 | France | 3-1 | Italy | Friendlies |
| 2008-06-17 | France | 0-2 | Italy | Euro Championship |
Other League A - 3 fixtures
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- Germany v Serbia — match page 2026-10-01
- Wales vs Norway — team news & stats 2026-10-01
- Greece vs Netherlands 2026-10-01
- Belgium vs Türkiye — team news & stats 2026-10-02
- Croatia vs England 2026-10-03
- Spain v Czechia — match page 2026-10-03