UEFA Nations League · League B - 4

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland

· Stadion Bilino Polje, Zenica· Referee Jeremie Pignard

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Poland to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Bosnia & HerzegovinaDrawPoland

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBosnia & HerzegovinaDrawPoland
Model26%23%50%
Market33%28%40%
Published31%27%42%
Edge-6%-5%+11%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.45.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Poland below the model: +10.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Poland, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-01.

Opened 2.00Now 2.38 +0.38
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Bosnia & Herzegovina3.502.90-0.60
Draw3.503.40-0.10
Poland2.002.38+0.38

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bosnia & Herzegovina and Poland expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.45Bosnia & Herzegovina
2.02Poland
Total expected goals
3.47
Attack rating (Bosnia & Herzegovina / Poland)
1.22 / 1.49
Defence rating (Bosnia & Herzegovina / Poland)
1.06 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.0% 5.4% 6.3% 4.3% 3.4% 1 3.6% 10.0% 9.2% 6.2% 5.0% 2 3.3% 6.6% 6.7% 4.5% 3.6% 3 1.6% 3.2% 3.2% 2.2% 1.7% 4+ 0.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.1% 0.9%

Rows: Bosnia & Herzegovina goals. Columns: Poland goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 67%
Over 3.5 46%
Both teams to score
67%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Bosnia & Herzegovina31%3.22
Draw27%3.75
Poland42%2.36
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568%1.48
Under 2.532%3.08
Both teams to scoreYes67%1.49
No33%3.06
Double chance1X (Bosnia & Herzegovina or draw)58%1.73
12 (either side)73%1.36
X2 (draw or Poland)69%1.45
Handicap -1Poland win by 2+30%3.38
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Bosnia & Herzegovina and Poland recent form

Bosnia & Herzegovina 2W 2D 2L
Poland 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Bosnia & Herzegovina at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Poland away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Bosnia & Herzegovina at home only, Poland away only.

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Bosnia & Herzegovina 0 · draws 1 · Poland 2.

Bosnia & HerzegovinaDrawsPoland
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-25Poland0-0Bosnia & HerzegovinaUEFA Nations League
2020-10-14Poland3-0Bosnia & HerzegovinaUEFA Nations League
2020-09-07Bosnia & Herzegovina1-2PolandUEFA Nations League

Other League B - 4 fixtures