Switzerland vs FYR Macedonia Prediction & Betting Tips 06/10/2026

Switzerland vs FYR Macedonia preview

Switzerland faces FYR Macedonia in the UEFA Nations League, with a strong probability of 87% for a Switzerland win. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Switzerland's expected goals of 2.88 compared to FYR Macedonia's 0.62. The market indicates a high chance of Over 2.5 goals at 68%, but the likelihood of both teams to score is lower at 44%.

Recent form shows Switzerland with three wins in their last five matches, while FYR Macedonia has lost all five of their most recent games. This disparity could influence the outcome, but an unexpected performance from FYR Macedonia could challenge the predictions. The confidence grade is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the probabilities.

Switzerland vs FYR Macedonia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Switzerland	Draw	FYR Macedonia
Model	83%	12%	5%
Market	88%	9%	3%
Published	87%	10%	3%
Edge	-6%	+4%	+2%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.88 vs 0.62.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.10, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Switzerland vs FYR Macedonia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Switzerland, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 1.12Now 1.07 -0.05

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Switzerland	1.12	1.07	-0.05
Draw	8.00	11.00	+3.00
FYR Macedonia	19.00	31.20	+12.20

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Switzerland and FYR Macedonia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.88Switzerland

0.62FYR Macedonia

Total expected goals: 3.50
Attack rating (Switzerland / FYR Macedonia): 1.51 / 0.75
Defence rating (Switzerland / FYR Macedonia): 0.66 / 1.56

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Switzerland vs FYR Macedonia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.6% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 1 8.2% 5.9% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 2 12.6% 7.7% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 3 12.1% 7.4% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 17.6% 10.9% 3.3% 0.7% 0.1%

Rows: Switzerland goals. Columns: FYR Macedonia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Switzerland vs FYR Macedonia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 87%

Over 2.5 68%

Over 3.5 46%

Both teams to score: 44%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Switzerland vs FYR Macedonia

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Switzerland	87%	1.15
	Draw	10%	10.47
	FYR Macedonia	3%	28.85
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	68%	1.47
	Under 2.5	32%	3.11
Both teams to score	Yes	44%	2.27
	No	56%	1.79
Double chance	1X (Switzerland or draw)	97%	1.04
	12 (either side)	90%	1.11
	X2 (draw or FYR Macedonia)	13%	7.68
Handicap -1	Switzerland win by 2+	64%	1.56
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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