UEFA Nations League · League B - 4

Ukraine vs Hungary

· Štadión Antona Malatinského, Trnava· Referee Igor Pajac

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was Hungary to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
UkraineDrawHungary

Ukraine vs Hungary: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceUkraineDrawHungary
Model24%28%47%
Market36%31%33%
Published33%30%36%
Edge-12%-3%+14%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 1.03.
  • The market prices Hungary below the model: +14.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Ukraine vs Hungary odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Hungary, 14 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 1.50Now 2.87 +1.37
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Ukraine1.502.62+1.12
Draw3.003.04+0.04
Hungary1.502.87+1.37

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Ukraine and Hungary expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.03Ukraine
1.50Hungary
Total expected goals
2.53
Attack rating (Ukraine / Hungary)
0.88 / 0.99
Defence rating (Ukraine / Hungary)
1.19 / 0.96

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ukraine vs Hungary score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.2% 10.8% 9.0% 4.5% 2.4% 1 7.0% 13.5% 9.2% 4.6% 2.4% 2 4.2% 6.3% 4.7% 2.4% 1.2% 3 1.4% 2.2% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4% 4+ 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Ukraine goals. Columns: Hungary goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ukraine vs Hungary goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 46%
Over 3.5 25%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ukraine vs Hungary

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Ukraine33%3.02
Draw30%3.29
Hungary36%2.74
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546%2.15
Under 2.554%1.87
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.96
No49%2.04
Double chance1X (Ukraine or draw)64%1.57
12 (either side)70%1.44
X2 (draw or Hungary)67%1.50
Handicap -1Hungary win by 2+24%4.13
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Ukraine and Hungary recent form

Ukraine 2W 1D 3L
Hungary 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Ukraine at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Hungary away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Ukraine at home only, Hungary away only.

Ukraine vs Hungary head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Ukraine 1 · draws 0 · Hungary 0.

UkraineDrawsHungary
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-25Hungary0-1UkraineUEFA Nations League

Other League B - 4 fixtures