UEFA Nations League · League B - 4

Rep. Of Ireland vs Israel

· Gradski Stadion, Backa Topola· Referee Juan Martinez Munuera

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Rep. Of Ireland to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Rep. Of IrelandDrawIsrael

Rep. Of Ireland vs Israel: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRep. Of IrelandDrawIsrael
Model55%22%23%
Market45%28%28%
Published47%26%27%
Edge+10%-6%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.28 vs 1.45.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Rep. Of Ireland below the model: +10.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Rep. Of Ireland vs Israel odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Rep. Of Ireland, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-28.

Opened 2.05Now 2.10 +0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Rep. Of Ireland2.052.10+0.05
Draw3.473.40-0.07
Israel3.583.40-0.18

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Rep. Of Ireland and Israel expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.28Rep. Of Ireland
1.45Israel
Total expected goals
3.73
Attack rating (Rep. Of Ireland / Israel)
1.19 / 1.14
Defence rating (Rep. Of Ireland / Israel)
0.97 / 1.58

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Rep. Of Ireland vs Israel score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.2% 2.7% 2.5% 1.2% 0.6% 1 4.7% 8.7% 5.7% 2.8% 1.4% 2 6.3% 9.1% 6.5% 3.2% 1.6% 3 4.8% 6.9% 5.0% 2.4% 1.2% 4+ 4.6% 6.7% 4.8% 2.3% 1.2%

Rows: Rep. Of Ireland goals. Columns: Israel goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Rep. Of Ireland vs Israel goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 72%
Over 3.5 51%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Rep. Of Ireland vs Israel

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Rep. Of Ireland47%2.11
Draw26%3.83
Israel27%3.76
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571%1.40
Under 2.529%3.50
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.44
No31%3.25
Double chance1X (Rep. Of Ireland or draw)73%1.36
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Israel)53%1.90
Handicap -1Rep. Of Ireland win by 2+35%2.84
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Rep. Of Ireland and Israel recent form

Rep. Of Ireland 3W 2D 1L
Israel 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Rep. Of Ireland at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Israel away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Rep. Of Ireland at home only, Israel away only.

Rep. Of Ireland vs Israel head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Rep. Of Ireland 1 · draws 0 · Israel 0.

Rep. Of IrelandDrawsIsrael
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-27Israel0-3Rep. Of IrelandUEFA Nations League

Other League B - 4 fixtures