UEFA Nations League · League B - 4

Kosovo vs Austria

· Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri, Pristina· Referee Antonio Nobre

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Austria to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
KosovoDrawAustria

Kosovo vs Austria: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceKosovoDrawAustria
Model23%26%51%
Market27%28%45%
Published26%27%47%
Edge-4%-2%+6%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.14.
  • The market prices Austria below the model: +6.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Kosovo vs Austria odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Austria, 11 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 1.50Now 2.10 +0.60
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Kosovo1.503.50+2.00
Draw3.003.40+0.40
Austria1.502.10+0.60

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Kosovo and Austria expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.14Kosovo
1.77Austria
Total expected goals
2.91
Attack rating (Kosovo / Austria)
0.88 / 1.58
Defence rating (Kosovo / Austria)
0.84 / 1.07

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kosovo vs Austria score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.6% 8.6% 8.6% 5.0% 3.3% 1 5.1% 12.1% 9.7% 5.7% 3.8% 2 3.5% 6.3% 5.5% 3.3% 2.1% 3 1.3% 2.4% 2.1% 1.2% 0.8% 4+ 0.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3%

Rows: Kosovo goals. Columns: Austria goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kosovo vs Austria goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 33%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kosovo vs Austria

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Kosovo26%3.84
Draw27%3.66
Austria47%2.14
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555%1.81
Under 2.545%2.24
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.75
No43%2.34
Double chance1X (Kosovo or draw)53%1.87
12 (either side)73%1.38
X2 (draw or Austria)74%1.35
Handicap -1Austria win by 2+29%3.46
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Kosovo and Austria recent form

Kosovo 2W 2D 2L
Austria 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Kosovo at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

Austria away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Kosovo at home only, Austria away only.

Kosovo vs Austria head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Kosovo 0 · draws 0 · Austria 1.

KosovoDrawsAustria
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-27Austria3-1KosovoUEFA Nations League

Other League B - 4 fixtures