Scotland vs Slovenia preview
Scotland faces Slovenia with a 47% probability of winning according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 14% of the time. However, the match could deviate from this if Slovenia improves their recent form, as they have drawn in three of their last six matches.
The chances for Over 2.5 goals stand at 28%, while both teams to score is at 38%. Expected goals are close, with Scotland at 0.95 and Slovenia at 0.91, indicating a potentially tight match. The confidence grade is C, reflecting a blend of model probabilities and market odds, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.
Scotland vs Slovenia: model vs market
| Source | Scotland | Draw | Slovenia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 35% | 31% |
| Market | 52% | 28% | 20% |
| Published | 47% | 30% | 22% |
| Edge | -18% | +7% | +12% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.84, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Scotland vs Slovenia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Scotland, 14 snapshots since 2026-09-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 1.50 | 1.80 | +0.30 |
| Draw | 3.00 | 3.30 | +0.30 |
| Slovenia | 1.50 | 4.80 | +3.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Scotland and Slovenia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.86
- Attack rating (Scotland / Slovenia)
- 0.93 / 0.69
- Defence rating (Scotland / Slovenia)
- 1.06 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Scotland vs Slovenia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Scotland goals. Columns: Slovenia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Scotland vs Slovenia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Scotland vs Slovenia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Scotland | 47% | 2.11 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Slovenia | 22% | 4.45 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28% | 3.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 72% | 1.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.64 |
| No | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Scotland or draw) | 78% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Slovenia) | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Handicap -1 | Scotland win by 2+ | 13% | 7.79 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Scotland and Slovenia recent form
Scotland
2W 1D 3L
Slovenia
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Scotland at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Slovenia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Scotland at home only, Slovenia away only.
Scotland vs Slovenia head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Scotland 1 · draws 2 · Slovenia 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Slovenia | 0-0 | Scotland | UEFA Nations League |
| 2017-10-08 | Slovenia | 2-2 | Scotland | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| 2017-03-26 | Scotland | 1-0 | Slovenia | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
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