UEFA Nations League · League B - 4

Romania vs Sweden

· Arena Națională, Bucharest· Referee Elcin Masiyev

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Sweden to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
RomaniaDrawSweden

Romania vs Sweden: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRomaniaDrawSweden
Model27%19%53%
Market22%23%55%
Published23%22%55%
Edge+5%-4%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.62 vs 1.92.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Romania vs Sweden odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sweden, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-01.

Opened 1.83Now 1.72 -0.11
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Romania3.724.33+0.61
Draw3.904.10+0.20
Sweden1.831.72-0.11

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Romania and Sweden expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.92Romania
2.62Sweden
Total expected goals
4.54
Attack rating (Romania / Sweden)
1.20 / 1.25
Defence rating (Romania / Sweden)
1.64 / 1.32

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Romania vs Sweden score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.6% 2.3% 3.7% 3.2% 4.0% 1 1.5% 5.9% 7.0% 6.2% 7.6% 2 2.0% 5.1% 6.7% 5.9% 7.3% 3 1.3% 3.3% 4.3% 3.8% 4.6% 4+ 0.9% 2.4% 3.2% 2.8% 3.4%

Rows: Romania goals. Columns: Sweden goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Romania vs Sweden goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 95%
Over 2.5 83%
Over 3.5 66%
Both teams to score
80%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Romania vs Sweden

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Romania23%4.31
Draw22%4.51
Sweden55%1.83
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.583%1.20
Under 2.517%5.94
Both teams to scoreYes80%1.26
No20%4.91
Double chance1X (Romania or draw)45%2.20
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or Sweden)77%1.30
Handicap -1Sweden win by 2+35%2.90
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Romania and Sweden recent form

Romania 1W 0D 5L
Sweden 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Romania at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
4.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Sweden away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Romania at home only, Sweden away only.

Romania vs Sweden head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Romania 1 · draws 0 · Sweden 3.

RomaniaDrawsSweden
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-25Sweden2-1RomaniaUEFA Nations League
2019-11-15Romania0-2SwedenEuro Championship
2019-03-23Sweden2-1RomaniaEuro Championship
2018-03-27Romania1-0SwedenFriendlies

Other League B - 4 fixtures