Northern Ireland vs Georgia: model vs market
| Source | Northern Ireland | Draw | Georgia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 30% | 16% |
| Market | 39% | 32% | 28% |
| Published | 43% | 32% | 25% |
| Edge | +14% | -2% | -12% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.62.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Northern Ireland below the model: +14.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Northern Ireland vs Georgia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Northern Ireland, 14 snapshots since 2026-09-29.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Ireland | 1.50 | 2.40 | +0.90 |
| Draw | 3.00 | 2.90 | -0.10 |
| Georgia | 1.50 | 3.30 | +1.80 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Northern Ireland and Georgia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.99
- Attack rating (Northern Ireland / Georgia)
- 0.89 / 0.69
- Defence rating (Northern Ireland / Georgia)
- 0.71 / 1.26
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Northern Ireland vs Georgia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Northern Ireland goals. Columns: Georgia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Northern Ireland vs Georgia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 36%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Northern Ireland vs Georgia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Northern Ireland | 43% | 2.34 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Georgia | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.13 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36% | 2.80 |
| No | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Northern Ireland or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| X2 (draw or Georgia) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Northern Ireland win by 2+ | 27% | 3.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Northern Ireland and Georgia recent form
Northern Ireland
3W 1D 2L
Georgia
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Northern Ireland at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
Georgia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Northern Ireland at home only, Georgia away only.
Northern Ireland vs Georgia head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Northern Ireland 1 · draws 0 · Georgia 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Georgia | 0-1 | Northern Ireland | UEFA Nations League |
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