UEFA Nations League · League B - 3

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden

· Stadion Bilino Polje, Zenica· Referee Oleksiy Derevinskiy

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Sweden to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Bosnia & HerzegovinaDrawSweden

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBosnia & HerzegovinaDrawSweden
Model35%23%42%
Market34%26%39%
Published35%25%40%
Edge+1%-4%+3%
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Sweden below the model: +2.9 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sweden, 6 snapshots since 2026-09-30.

Opened 2.10Now 2.41 +0.31
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Bosnia & Herzegovina3.232.75-0.48
Draw3.623.60-0.02
Sweden2.102.41+0.31

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bosnia & Herzegovina and Sweden expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.88Bosnia & Herzegovina
2.01Sweden
Total expected goals
3.89
Attack rating (Bosnia & Herzegovina / Sweden)
1.29 / 1.33
Defence rating (Bosnia & Herzegovina / Sweden)
1.10 / 1.37

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.8% 3.3% 4.1% 2.8% 2.2% 1 3.1% 8.5% 7.8% 5.2% 4.1% 2 3.6% 7.3% 7.3% 4.9% 3.9% 3 2.3% 4.6% 4.6% 3.1% 2.4% 4+ 1.6% 3.3% 3.3% 2.2% 1.8%

Rows: Bosnia & Herzegovina goals. Columns: Sweden goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 75%
Over 3.5 54%
Both teams to score
74%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Bosnia & Herzegovina35%2.89
Draw25%3.95
Sweden40%2.50
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574%1.34
Under 2.526%3.92
Both teams to scoreYes74%1.35
No26%3.86
Double chance1X (Bosnia & Herzegovina or draw)60%1.67
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Sweden)65%1.53
Handicap -1Sweden win by 2+23%4.27
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Bosnia & Herzegovina and Sweden recent form

Bosnia & Herzegovina 2W 2D 2L
Sweden 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Other League B - 3 fixtures