Switzerland vs Slovenia: model vs market
| Source | Switzerland | Draw | Slovenia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 32% | 16% |
| Market | 76% | 17% | 7% |
| Published | 70% | 21% | 9% |
| Edge | -24% | +15% | +8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.25 vs 0.55.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Switzerland vs Slovenia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Switzerland, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland | 1.34 | 1.26 | -0.08 |
| Draw | 4.75 | 5.70 | +0.95 |
| Slovenia | 9.50 | 13.00 | +3.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Switzerland and Slovenia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.81
- Attack rating (Switzerland / Slovenia)
- 1.46 / 0.66
- Defence rating (Switzerland / Slovenia)
- 0.63 / 0.72
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Switzerland vs Slovenia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Switzerland goals. Columns: Slovenia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Switzerland vs Slovenia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 32%
- No goals (0–0)
- 18%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Switzerland vs Slovenia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Switzerland | 70% | 1.43 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.85 | |
| Slovenia | 9% | 10.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 27% | 3.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 73% | 1.38 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32% | 3.13 |
| No | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Switzerland or draw) | 91% | 1.10 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Slovenia) | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Switzerland win by 2+ | 25% | 3.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Switzerland and Slovenia recent form
Switzerland
4W 1D 1L
Slovenia
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Switzerland vs Slovenia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Switzerland 1 · draws 1 · Slovenia 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-13 | Slovenia | 0-0 | Switzerland | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| 2025-09-08 | Switzerland | 3-0 | Slovenia | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
Other League B - 3 fixtures
- Rep. Of Ireland vs Austria 2026-10-01
- Israel vs Kosovo — team news & stats 2026-10-01
- Poland v Romania — match page 2026-10-02
- Hungary vs Georgia — team news & stats 2026-10-02
- Ukraine vs Northern Ireland 2026-10-02
- Bosnia & Herzegovina v Sweden — match page 2026-10-02
- FYR Macedonia vs Scotland 2026-10-03