Israel vs Kosovo: model vs market
| Source | Israel | Draw | Kosovo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17% | 19% | 64% |
| Market | 32% | 28% | 41% |
| Published | 28% | 25% | 46% |
| Edge | -15% | -8% | +23% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.55 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Kosovo below the model: +23.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Israel vs Kosovo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Kosovo, 8 snapshots since 2026-09-28.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel | 2.88 | 2.95 | +0.07 |
| Draw | 3.34 | 3.42 | +0.08 |
| Kosovo | 2.31 | 2.32 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Israel and Kosovo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.83
- Attack rating (Israel / Kosovo)
- 1.31 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Israel / Kosovo)
- 1.85 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Israel vs Kosovo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Israel goals. Columns: Kosovo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Israel vs Kosovo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Israel vs Kosovo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Israel | 28% | 3.56 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Kosovo | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.50 |
| No | 33% | 3.01 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Israel or draw) | 54% | 1.87 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Kosovo) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kosovo win by 2+ | 44% | 2.28 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Israel and Kosovo recent form
Israel
1W 0D 5L
Kosovo
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Israel at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Kosovo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Israel at home only, Kosovo away only.
Israel vs Kosovo head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Israel 0 · draws 1 · Kosovo 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-12 | Kosovo | 1-0 | Israel | Euro Championship - Qualification |
| 2023-03-25 | Israel | 1-1 | Kosovo | Euro Championship - Qualification |
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