Hungary vs Georgia: model vs market
| Source | Hungary | Draw | Georgia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Market | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Published | 42% | 29% | 28% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Hungary vs Georgia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hungary, 7 snapshots since 2026-09-29.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hungary | 1.80 | 2.25 | +0.45 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.20 | -0.30 |
| Georgia | 4.10 | 3.30 | -0.80 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hungary and Georgia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.62
- Attack rating (Hungary / Georgia)
- 1.03 / 0.76
- Defence rating (Hungary / Georgia)
- 1.07 / 1.36
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hungary vs Georgia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hungary goals. Columns: Georgia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hungary vs Georgia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hungary vs Georgia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hungary | 42% | 2.36 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Georgia | 28% | 3.52 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hungary or draw) | 72% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Georgia) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hungary win by 2+ | 23% | 4.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Hungary and Georgia recent form
Hungary
2W 2D 2L
Georgia
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hungary at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Hungary at home only, Georgia away only.
Other League B - 3 fixtures
- Rep. Of Ireland vs Austria 2026-10-01
- Israel vs Kosovo — team news & stats 2026-10-01
- Poland v Romania — match page 2026-10-02
- Ukraine vs Northern Ireland 2026-10-02
- Bosnia & Herzegovina v Sweden — match page 2026-10-02
- Switzerland vs Slovenia — team news & stats 2026-10-03
- FYR Macedonia vs Scotland 2026-10-03