UEFA Nations League · League B - 3

FYR Macedonia vs Scotland

· Nacional Arena Todor Proeski, Skopje· Referee Francois Letexier

Full time0 – 2

Alin prediction was Scotland to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FYR MacedoniaDrawScotland

FYR Macedonia vs Scotland: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFYR MacedoniaDrawScotland
Model24%25%51%
Market16%26%58%
Published18%26%56%
Edge+8%-1%-7%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.15.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

FYR Macedonia vs Scotland odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Scotland, 11 snapshots since 2026-09-28.

Opened 1.94Now 1.64 -0.30
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FYR Macedonia3.106.00+2.90
Draw3.543.60+0.06
Scotland1.941.64-0.30

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FYR Macedonia and Scotland expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.15FYR Macedonia
1.74Scotland
Total expected goals
2.90
Attack rating (FYR Macedonia / Scotland)
0.82 / 0.87
Defence rating (FYR Macedonia / Scotland)
1.49 / 1.17

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FYR Macedonia vs Scotland score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.6% 8.5% 8.4% 4.9% 3.1% 1 5.3% 12.2% 9.7% 5.6% 3.6% 2 3.7% 6.4% 5.6% 3.2% 2.1% 3 1.4% 2.5% 2.1% 1.2% 0.8% 4+ 0.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3%

Rows: FYR Macedonia goals. Columns: Scotland goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FYR Macedonia vs Scotland goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 55%
Over 3.5 33%
Both teams to score
58%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FYR Macedonia vs Scotland

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FYR Macedonia18%5.64
Draw26%3.83
Scotland56%1.78
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.77
Under 2.544%2.29
Both teams to scoreYes58%1.72
No42%2.39
Double chance1X (FYR Macedonia or draw)44%2.28
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Scotland)82%1.22
Handicap -1Scotland win by 2+28%3.57
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

FYR Macedonia and Scotland recent form

FYR Macedonia 0W 2D 4L
Scotland 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FYR Macedonia at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Scotland away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: FYR Macedonia at home only, Scotland away only.

Other League B - 3 fixtures