UEFA Nations League · League B - 3

Ukraine vs Northern Ireland

· Štadión Antona Malatinského, Trnava· Referee Jasper Vergoote

Full time0 – 3

Alin prediction was Ukraine to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
UkraineDrawNorthern Ireland

Ukraine vs Northern Ireland: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceUkraineDrawNorthern Ireland
Model26%34%40%
Market48%30%22%
Published42%31%26%
Edge-21%+3%+18%
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Ukraine vs Northern Ireland odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Ukraine, 7 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 1.85Now 1.97 +0.12
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Ukraine1.851.97+0.12
Draw3.353.10-0.25
Northern Ireland4.334.30-0.03

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Ukraine and Northern Ireland expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.86Ukraine
1.10Northern Ireland
Total expected goals
1.96
Attack rating (Ukraine / Northern Ireland)
0.97 / 0.76
Defence rating (Ukraine / Northern Ireland)
1.05 / 0.84

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ukraine vs Northern Ireland score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 15.4% 14.2% 8.5% 3.1% 1.1% 1 10.8% 14.7% 7.3% 2.7% 0.9% 2 5.2% 5.7% 3.2% 1.2% 0.4% 3 1.5% 1.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Ukraine goals. Columns: Northern Ireland goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ukraine vs Northern Ireland goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%
Over 1.5 60%
Over 2.5 31%
Over 3.5 14%
Both teams to score
40%
No goals (0–0)
15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ukraine vs Northern Ireland

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Ukraine42%2.36
Draw31%3.21
Northern Ireland26%3.78
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.531%3.20
Under 2.569%1.45
Both teams to scoreYes40%2.52
No60%1.66
Double chance1X (Ukraine or draw)74%1.36
12 (either side)69%1.45
X2 (draw or Northern Ireland)58%1.74
Handicap -1Ukraine win by 2+9%10.63
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Ukraine and Northern Ireland recent form

Ukraine 3W 1D 2L
Northern Ireland 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Northern Ireland away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Ukraine at home only, Northern Ireland away only.

Ukraine vs Northern Ireland head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Ukraine 1 · draws 0 · Northern Ireland 1.

UkraineDrawsNorthern Ireland
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2021-06-03Ukraine1-0Northern IrelandFriendlies
2016-06-16Ukraine0-2Northern IrelandEuro Championship

Other League B - 3 fixtures