Rep. Of Ireland vs Austria: model vs market
| Source | Rep. Of Ireland | Draw | Austria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 23% | 55% |
| Market | 27% | 29% | 44% |
| Published | 26% | 28% | 47% |
| Edge | -4% | -7% | +11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.33.
- The market prices Austria below the model: +11.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Rep. Of Ireland vs Austria odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Austria, 8 snapshots since 2026-09-28.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rep. Of Ireland | 3.40 | 3.50 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.20 | -0.10 |
| Austria | 2.10 | 2.15 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Rep. Of Ireland and Austria expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.47
- Attack rating (Rep. Of Ireland / Austria)
- 1.24 / 1.68
- Defence rating (Rep. Of Ireland / Austria)
- 0.92 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rep. Of Ireland vs Austria score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rep. Of Ireland goals. Columns: Austria goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rep. Of Ireland vs Austria goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rep. Of Ireland vs Austria
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rep. Of Ireland | 26% | 3.88 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Austria | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.53 |
| No | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rep. Of Ireland or draw) | 53% | 1.87 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Austria) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Handicap -1 | Austria win by 2+ | 34% | 2.92 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Rep. Of Ireland and Austria recent form
Rep. Of Ireland
4W 1D 1L
Austria
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Rep. Of Ireland vs Austria head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Rep. Of Ireland 1 · draws 1 · Austria 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-06-11 | Rep. Of Ireland | 1-1 | Austria | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| 2016-11-12 | Austria | 0-1 | Rep. Of Ireland | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
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