Poland vs Romania: model vs market
| Source | Poland | Draw | Romania |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 22% | 50% |
| Market | 59% | 23% | 19% |
| Published | 51% | 23% | 26% |
| Edge | -31% | 0% | +31% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Poland vs Romania odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Poland, 7 snapshots since 2026-09-29.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poland | 1.60 | 1.62 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.85 | 4.20 | +0.35 |
| Romania | 5.50 | 5.11 | -0.39 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Poland and Romania expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.74
- Attack rating (Poland / Romania)
- 1.16 / 1.38
- Defence rating (Poland / Romania)
- 1.12 / 1.31
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Poland vs Romania score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Poland goals. Columns: Romania goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Poland vs Romania goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Poland vs Romania
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Poland | 51% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.43 | |
| Romania | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.41 |
| No | 29% | 3.47 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Poland or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Romania) | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Handicap -1 | Poland win by 2+ | 14% | 7.19 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Poland and Romania recent form
Poland
2W 2D 2L
Romania
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Poland at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
Romania away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Poland at home only, Romania away only.
Poland vs Romania head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Poland 2 · draws 0 · Romania 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-06-10 | Poland | 3-1 | Romania | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| 2016-11-11 | Romania | 0-3 | Poland | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
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