Croatia vs Spain preview
In the UEFA Nations League fixture between Croatia and Spain, the key number is Spain's 76% probability to win in the 1X2 market. Croatia's recent form shows two losses in their last three matches, while Spain has won all six of their recent games. This suggests a significant advantage for Spain.
The model predicts a most likely scoreline of 1-3, with an 82% chance of Over 2.5 goals. However, Croatia could challenge this outcome if they manage to score early or if Spain underperforms, as both teams to score has a 62% probability. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions based on market odds.
Croatia vs Spain: model vs market
| Source | Croatia | Draw | Spain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 7% | 12% | 82% |
| Market | 10% | 16% | 74% |
| Published | 9% | 15% | 76% |
| Edge | -3% | -4% | +7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.41 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Spain below the model: +7.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.31, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Croatia vs Spain odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Spain, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia | 7.00 | 9.77 | +2.77 |
| Draw | 5.00 | 6.00 | +1.00 |
| Spain | 1.36 | 1.29 | -0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Croatia and Spain expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.43
- Attack rating (Croatia / Spain)
- 1.36 / 1.74
- Defence rating (Croatia / Spain)
- 1.58 / 0.61
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Croatia vs Spain score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Croatia goals. Columns: Spain goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Croatia vs Spain goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Croatia vs Spain
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Croatia | 9% | 11.01 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.73 | |
| Spain | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 18% | 5.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.61 |
| No | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Croatia or draw) | 24% | 4.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 85% | 1.17 | |
| X2 (draw or Spain) | 91% | 1.10 | |
| Handicap -1 | Spain win by 2+ | 65% | 1.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Croatia and Spain recent form
Croatia
3W 0D 3L
Spain
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Croatia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 7.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Spain away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Croatia at home only, Spain away only.
Croatia vs Spain head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Croatia 2 · draws 1 · Spain 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Spain | 4-1 | Croatia | UEFA Nations League |
| 2024-06-15 | Spain | 3-0 | Croatia | Euro Championship |
| 2023-06-18 | Croatia | 0-0 | Spain | UEFA Nations League |
| 2021-06-28 | Croatia | 3-5 | Spain | Euro Championship |
| 2018-11-15 | Croatia | 3-2 | Spain | UEFA Nations League |
| 2018-09-11 | Spain | 6-0 | Croatia | UEFA Nations League |
| 2016-06-21 | Croatia | 2-1 | Spain | Euro Championship |
| 2012-06-18 | Croatia | 0-1 | Spain | Euro Championship |
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