UEFA Nations League · League A - 4

Wales vs Denmark

· Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff· Referee Irfan Peljto

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Denmark to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
WalesDrawDenmark

Wales vs Denmark: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceWalesDrawDenmark
Model36%23%41%
Market25%27%48%
Published28%26%46%
Edge+12%-5%-7%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Wales vs Denmark odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Denmark, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-28.

Opened 1.73Now 1.99 +0.26
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Wales2.453.90+1.45
Draw3.403.50+0.10
Denmark1.731.99+0.26

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Wales and Denmark expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.88Wales
1.96Denmark
Total expected goals
3.84
Attack rating (Wales / Denmark)
1.33 / 1.50
Defence rating (Wales / Denmark)
1.00 / 1.16

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Wales vs Denmark score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.9% 3.4% 4.1% 2.7% 2.1% 1 3.2% 8.7% 7.8% 5.1% 3.9% 2 3.8% 7.4% 7.3% 4.8% 3.7% 3 2.4% 4.6% 4.6% 3.0% 2.3% 4+ 1.7% 3.3% 3.3% 2.1% 1.7%

Rows: Wales goals. Columns: Denmark goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Wales vs Denmark goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 74%
Over 3.5 53%
Both teams to score
73%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Wales vs Denmark

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Wales28%3.63
Draw26%3.81
Denmark46%2.16
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.573%1.36
Under 2.527%3.75
Both teams to scoreYes73%1.36
No27%3.74
Double chance1X (Wales or draw)54%1.86
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Denmark)72%1.38
Handicap -1Denmark win by 2+23%4.43
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Wales and Denmark recent form

Wales 3W 1D 2L
Denmark 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Wales at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Denmark away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Wales at home only, Denmark away only.

Wales vs Denmark head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Wales 0 · draws 0 · Denmark 4.

WalesDrawsDenmark
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-27Denmark2-0WalesUEFA Nations League
2021-06-26Wales0-4DenmarkEuro Championship
2018-11-16Wales1-2DenmarkUEFA Nations League
2018-09-09Denmark2-0WalesUEFA Nations League

Other League A - 4 fixtures