England vs Czechia preview
In the UEFA Nations League match between England and Czechia, the model gives England an 84% chance to win, making them the clear favorites. The expected goals suggest a high-scoring game, with England expected to score 3.53 goals compared to Czechia's 1.22. The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals stands at 85%, while both teams to score is at 69%, indicating a strong possibility of multiple goals.
However, the confidence grade is C, which means there is some uncertainty. Czechia's recent form shows they have lost four of their last five matches, which could affect their performance. If they manage to improve their form or if England underperforms, the outcome could differ from expectations.
England vs Czechia: model vs market
| Source | England | Draw | Czechia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 80% | 12% | 8% |
| Market | 86% | 10% | 4% |
| Published | 84% | 10% | 5% |
| Edge | -6% | +2% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.53 vs 1.22.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.12, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
England vs Czechia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on England, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | 1.17 | 1.10 | -0.07 |
| Draw | 7.00 | 9.70 | +2.70 |
| Czechia | 17.00 | 23.00 | +6.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
England and Czechia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.75
- Attack rating (England / Czechia)
- 2.17 / 1.01
- Defence rating (England / Czechia)
- 0.98 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
England vs Czechia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: England goals. Columns: Czechia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
England vs Czechia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for England vs Czechia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | England | 84% | 1.18 |
| Draw | 10% | 9.71 | |
| Czechia | 5% | 19.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85% | 1.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 15% | 6.79 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (England or draw) | 95% | 1.05 |
| 12 (either side) | 90% | 1.11 | |
| X2 (draw or Czechia) | 16% | 6.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | England win by 2+ | 64% | 1.57 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
England and Czechia recent form
England
4W 0D 2L
Czechia
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
England at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Czechia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: England at home only, Czechia away only.
England vs Czechia head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: England 3 · draws 0 · Czechia 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Czechia | 0-2 | England | UEFA Nations League |
| 2021-06-22 | Czechia | 0-1 | England | Euro Championship |
| 2019-10-11 | Czechia | 2-1 | England | Euro Championship |
| 2019-03-22 | England | 5-0 | Czechia | Euro Championship |
Other League A - 4 fixtures
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- Wales vs Denmark — team news & stats 2026-10-04
- Greece v Germany — match page 2026-10-04
- Netherlands vs Serbia — team news & stats 2026-10-04
- France vs Belgium 2026-10-05
- Italy v Türkiye — match page 2026-10-05
- Croatia vs Spain 2026-10-06