UEFA Nations League · League A - 4

Portugal vs Norway

· Estádio do Dragão, Porto· Referee Maurizio Mariani

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Portugal to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PortugalDrawNorway

Portugal vs Norway: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePortugalDrawNorway
Model49%21%30%
Market58%22%21%
Published55%22%23%
Edge-9%0%+9%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.33 vs 1.80.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Portugal vs Norway odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Portugal, 12 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 1.50Now 1.65 +0.15
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Portugal1.501.65+0.15
Draw3.004.40+1.40
Norway1.504.60+3.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Portugal and Norway expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.33Portugal
1.80Norway
Total expected goals
4.13
Attack rating (Portugal / Norway)
1.60 / 1.74
Defence rating (Portugal / Norway)
0.79 / 1.20

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Portugal vs Norway score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.3% 2.2% 2.6% 1.6% 1.1% 1 3.1% 7.4% 6.1% 3.6% 2.5% 2 4.4% 7.9% 7.1% 4.2% 2.9% 3 3.4% 6.1% 5.5% 3.3% 2.2% 4+ 3.4% 6.1% 5.5% 3.3% 2.2%

Rows: Portugal goals. Columns: Norway goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Portugal vs Norway goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 78%
Over 3.5 59%
Both teams to score
76%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Portugal vs Norway

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Portugal55%1.80
Draw22%4.64
Norway23%4.35
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.578%1.29
Under 2.522%4.46
Both teams to scoreYes76%1.32
No24%4.13
Double chance1X (Portugal or draw)77%1.30
12 (either side)78%1.27
X2 (draw or Norway)45%2.25
Handicap -1Portugal win by 2+31%3.27
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Portugal and Norway recent form

Portugal 4W 1D 1L
Norway 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Portugal at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

Norway away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Portugal at home only, Norway away only.

Portugal vs Norway head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Portugal 1 · draws 0 · Norway 0.

PortugalDrawsNorway
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-27Norway1-2PortugalUEFA Nations League

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