Italy vs Türkiye: model vs market
| Source | Italy | Draw | Türkiye |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 20% | 19% |
| Market | 70% | 18% | 12% |
| Published | 67% | 19% | 14% |
| Edge | -10% | +2% | +7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.39 vs 1.32.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Italy vs Türkiye odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Italy, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 1.62 | 1.36 | -0.26 |
| Draw | 4.05 | 5.25 | +1.20 |
| Türkiye | 4.90 | 7.90 | +3.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Italy and Türkiye expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.71
- Attack rating (Italy / Türkiye)
- 1.43 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Italy / Türkiye)
- 1.02 / 1.38
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Italy vs Türkiye score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Italy goals. Columns: Türkiye goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Italy vs Türkiye goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Italy vs Türkiye
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Italy | 67% | 1.48 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.35 | |
| Türkiye | 14% | 7.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.48 |
| No | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Italy or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Türkiye) | 33% | 3.07 | |
| Handicap -1 | Italy win by 2+ | 40% | 2.52 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Italy and Türkiye recent form
Italy
2W 2D 2L
Türkiye
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Italy at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Türkiye away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Italy at home only, Türkiye away only.
Italy vs Türkiye head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Italy 3 · draws 1 · Türkiye 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Türkiye | 1-4 | Italy | UEFA Nations League |
| 2024-06-04 | Italy | 0-0 | Türkiye | Friendlies |
| 2022-03-29 | Türkiye | 2-3 | Italy | Friendlies |
| 2021-06-11 | Türkiye | 0-3 | Italy | Euro Championship |
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