UEFA Nations League · League A - 4

France vs Belgium

· Stade de France, Paris· Referee Nick Walsh

Full time4 – 1

Alin prediction was France to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

6% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FranceDrawBelgium

France vs Belgium: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFranceDrawBelgium
Model23%23%54%
Market64%21%15%
Published54%21%25%
Edge-42%+3%+39%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

France vs Belgium odds movement

Median bookmaker price on France, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-01.

Opened 1.47Now 1.48 +0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
France1.471.48+0.01
Draw4.604.60+0.00
Belgium5.436.36+0.93

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

France and Belgium expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.27France
1.99Belgium
Total expected goals
3.26
Attack rating (France / Belgium)
1.46 / 1.78
Defence rating (France / Belgium)
0.88 / 0.72

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

France vs Belgium score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.8% 6.7% 7.6% 5.1% 4.0% 1 3.9% 10.7% 9.7% 6.4% 5.1% 2 3.1% 6.1% 6.1% 4.1% 3.2% 3 1.3% 2.6% 2.6% 1.7% 1.4% 4+ 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 0.7% 0.6%

Rows: France goals. Columns: Belgium goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

France vs Belgium goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 63%
Over 3.5 41%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for France vs Belgium

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2France54%1.85
Draw21%4.67
Belgium25%4.06
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563%1.58
Under 2.537%2.73
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.59
No37%2.70
Double chance1X (France or draw)75%1.33
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or Belgium)46%2.17
Handicap -1France win by 2+10%10.14
Push (exactly one goal)13%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

France and Belgium recent form

France 3W 1D 2L
Belgium 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

France at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Belgium away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: France at home only, Belgium away only.

France vs Belgium head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: France 6 · draws 0 · Belgium 0.

FranceDrawsBelgium
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-28Belgium0-1FranceUEFA Nations League
2024-10-14Belgium1-2FranceUEFA Nations League
2024-09-09France2-0BelgiumUEFA Nations League
2024-07-01France1-0BelgiumEuro Championship
2021-10-07Belgium2-3FranceUEFA Nations League
2018-07-10France1-0BelgiumWorld Cup

Other League A - 4 fixtures