UEFA Nations League · League A - 4

Greece vs Germany

· Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki· Referee Clement Turpin

Full time0 – 0

Alin prediction was Germany to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
GreeceDrawGermany

Greece vs Germany: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGreeceDrawGermany
Model20%24%56%
Market23%24%53%
Published22%24%54%
Edge-3%-1%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.12.
  • The market prices Germany below the model: +3.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Greece vs Germany odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Germany, 12 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 1.95Now 1.81 -0.14
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Greece3.354.20+0.85
Draw3.803.90+0.10
Germany1.951.81-0.14

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Greece and Germany expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.12Greece
1.96Germany
Total expected goals
3.08
Attack rating (Greece / Germany)
1.28 / 1.47
Defence rating (Greece / Germany)
1.02 / 0.72

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Greece vs Germany score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.6% 8.0% 8.8% 5.8% 4.4% 1 4.1% 11.1% 9.9% 6.5% 5.0% 2 2.9% 5.6% 5.5% 3.6% 2.8% 3 1.1% 2.1% 2.1% 1.3% 1.0% 4+ 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4%

Rows: Greece goals. Columns: Germany goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Greece vs Germany goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 59%
Over 3.5 37%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Greece vs Germany

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Greece22%4.53
Draw24%4.11
Germany54%1.86
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559%1.69
Under 2.541%2.45
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.71
No41%2.41
Double chance1X (Greece or draw)46%2.16
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Germany)78%1.28
Handicap -1Germany win by 2+34%2.97
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Greece and Germany recent form

Greece 3W 2D 1L
Germany 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Greece at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Germany away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Greece at home only, Germany away only.

Greece vs Germany head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Greece 1 · draws 0 · Germany 2.

GreeceDrawsGermany
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-27Germany0-1GreeceUEFA Nations League
2024-06-07Germany2-1GreeceFriendlies
2012-06-22Germany4-2GreeceEuro Championship

Other League A - 4 fixtures