UEFA Nations League · League A - 4

Netherlands vs Serbia

· Philips Stadion, Eindhoven· Referee Donatas Rumsas

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Netherlands to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
NetherlandsDrawSerbia

Netherlands vs Serbia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNetherlandsDrawSerbia
Model71%18%11%
Market84%11%5%
Published81%13%7%
Edge-13%+7%+6%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 0.89.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Netherlands vs Serbia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Netherlands, 12 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 1.50Now 1.14 -0.36
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Netherlands1.501.14-0.36
Draw3.008.75+5.75
Serbia1.5019.00+17.50

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Netherlands and Serbia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.46Netherlands
0.89Serbia
Total expected goals
3.36
Attack rating (Netherlands / Serbia)
1.77 / 0.80
Defence rating (Netherlands / Serbia)
0.86 / 1.15

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Netherlands vs Serbia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.3% 2.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 1 7.8% 8.4% 3.4% 1.0% 0.3% 2 10.6% 9.4% 4.2% 1.3% 0.3% 3 8.7% 7.8% 3.5% 1.0% 0.3% 4+ 9.6% 8.6% 3.8% 1.1% 0.3%

Rows: Netherlands goals. Columns: Serbia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Netherlands vs Serbia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 65%
Over 3.5 43%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Netherlands vs Serbia

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Netherlands81%1.24
Draw13%7.81
Serbia7%15.25
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565%1.55
Under 2.535%2.82
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.83
No45%2.21
Double chance1X (Netherlands or draw)93%1.07
12 (either side)87%1.15
X2 (draw or Serbia)19%5.16
Handicap -1Netherlands win by 2+50%2.02
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Netherlands and Serbia recent form

Netherlands 3W 3D 0L
Serbia 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Netherlands at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Serbia away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Netherlands at home only, Serbia away only.

Netherlands vs Serbia head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Netherlands 1 · draws 0 · Serbia 0.

NetherlandsDrawsSerbia
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-27Serbia1-2NetherlandsUEFA Nations League

Other League A - 4 fixtures