Updated

Algeria Ligue 1 · Matchday 9Postponed

USM Alger vs MC Oran

Alin prediction USM Alger to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

15% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
USM AlgerDrawMC Oran
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

USM Alger vs MC Oran: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceUSM AlgerDrawMC Oran
Model43%33%25%
Market———
Published43%33%25%
Edge———

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

USM Alger and MC Oran expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.97USM Alger
0.71MC Oran
Total expected goals
1.68
Attack rating (USM Alger / MC Oran)
1.10 / 0.90
Defence rating (USM Alger / MC Oran)
0.89 / 0.64

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

USM Alger vs MC Oran score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 19.9% 11.9% 4.7% 1.1% 0.2% 1 16.8% 14.1% 4.6% 1.1% 0.2% 2 8.8% 6.2% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 3 2.8% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: USM Alger goals. Columns: MC Oran goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

USM Alger vs MC Oran goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 80%
Over 1.5 51%
Over 2.5 24%
Over 3.5 9%
Both teams to score
40%
No goals (0–0)
20%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for USM Alger vs MC Oran

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2USM Alger43%2.35
Draw33%3.04
MC Oran25%4.06
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.532%3.10
Under 2.568%1.48
Both teams to scoreYes40%2.49
No60%1.67
Double chance1X (USM Alger or draw)75%1.33
12 (either side)67%1.49
X2 (draw or MC Oran)57%1.74
Handicap -1USM Alger win by 2+15%6.53
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

USM Alger and MC Oran recent form

USM Alger 3W 2D 1L
MC Oran 4W 2D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

USM Alger at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
2 of 2
  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

MC Oran away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
3 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 5 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: USM Alger at home only, MC Oran away only.

USM Alger vs MC Oran head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: USM Alger 0 · draws 2 · MC Oran 0.

USM AlgerDrawsMC Oran
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-06MC Oran2-2USM AlgerAlgeria Ligue 1
2026-01-08USM Alger1-1MC OranAlgeria Ligue 1

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match