Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys: model vs market
| Source | Gimnasia M. | Draw | Newells Old Boys |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 34% | 36% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 31% | 34% | 36% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Gimnasia M. and Newells Old Boys expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.99
- Attack rating (Gimnasia M. / Newells Old Boys)
- 1.10 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Gimnasia M. / Newells Old Boys)
- 1.21 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gimnasia M. goals. Columns: Newells Old Boys goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimnasia M. | 31% | 3.24 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.98 | |
| Newells Old Boys | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.11 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.43 |
| No | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gimnasia M. or draw) | 64% | 1.55 |
| 12 (either side) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| X2 (draw or Newells Old Boys) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Newells Old Boys win by 2+ | 14% | 6.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gimnasia M. and Newells Old Boys recent form
Gimnasia M.
2W 2D 2L
Newells Old Boys
2W 4D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gimnasia M. at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-3
- Win rate
- 54%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 0.85
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Newells Old Boys away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-6
- Win rate
- 23%
- Goals for / match
- 0.92
- Goals against / match
- 1.62
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Gimnasia M. at home only, Newells Old Boys away only.
Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Gimnasia M. 0 · draws 0 · Newells Old Boys 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Newells Old Boys | 1-0 | Gimnasia M. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
- Tigre v Banfield — match page 2026-10-10
- River Plate vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra 2026-10-11
- Rosario Central v Independ. Rivadavia — match page 2026-10-11
- Platense vs Argentinos JRS 2026-10-11
- Racing Club vs Belgrano Cordoba 2026-10-11
- Talleres Cordoba vs Independiente — team news & stats 2026-10-12
- Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield 2026-10-12