Updated

Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 12

Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys

· Víctor Legrotaglie, Mendoza· Referee Juan Cruz Robledo

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Gimnasia M. to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Gimnasia M.DrawNewells Old Boys

Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGimnasia M.DrawNewells Old Boys
Model31%34%36%
Market41%31%28%
Published39%32%30%
Edge-3%+1%+2%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Gimnasia M., 12 snapshots since 2026-10-07.

Opened 2.25Now 2.28 +0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Gimnasia M.2.252.28+0.03
Draw3.002.99-0.01
Newells Old Boys3.463.40-0.06

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Gimnasia M. and Newells Old Boys expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.95Gimnasia M.
1.04Newells Old Boys
Total expected goals
1.99
Attack rating (Gimnasia M. / Newells Old Boys)
1.10 / 0.96
Defence rating (Gimnasia M. / Newells Old Boys)
1.21 / 0.75

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 15.0% 12.8% 7.4% 2.6% 0.8% 1 11.6% 14.9% 7.0% 2.4% 0.8% 2 6.2% 6.4% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4% 3 2.0% 2.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Gimnasia M. goals. Columns: Newells Old Boys goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%
Over 1.5 61%
Over 2.5 32%
Over 3.5 14%
Both teams to score
41%
No goals (0–0)
15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Gimnasia M.39%2.59
Draw32%3.13
Newells Old Boys30%3.38
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.532%3.11
Under 2.568%1.47
Both teams to scoreYes41%2.44
No59%1.70
Double chance1X (Gimnasia M. or draw)70%1.42
12 (either side)68%1.47
X2 (draw or Newells Old Boys)61%1.63
Handicap -1Gimnasia M. win by 2+12%8.56
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Gimnasia M. and Newells Old Boys recent form

Gimnasia M. 2W 2D 2L
Newells Old Boys 2W 4D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Gimnasia M. at home

Record (W-D-L)
7-3-3
Win rate
54%
Goals for / match
1.31
Goals against / match
0.85
Clean sheets
5 of 13
  • They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Newells Old Boys away

Record (W-D-L)
3-4-6
Win rate
23%
Goals for / match
0.92
Goals against / match
1.62
Clean sheets
2 of 13
  • They have won 7 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Gimnasia M. at home only, Newells Old Boys away only.

Expected lineups

Gimnasia M. lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 23 C. Rigamonti
  2. 3 M. Recalde
  3. 2 D. Mondino
  4. 4 E. Muñoz
  5. 32 L. Paredes
  6. 21 F. Antonini
  7. 30 E. Fernández
  8. 26 F. Lencioni
  9. 7 L. Cingolani
  10. 8 M. Vargas
  11. 9 A. Módica

Bench: N. Barboza, S. Rodríguez, U. Sánchez, G. Guiffrey, J. Ceballos, J. Franco, M. Ubeda, B. Armoa, L. Petruchi, B. Andrada, V. Simoni, L. Carrera

Newells Old Boys lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 30 J. Reinatti
  2. 24 F. Escobar
  3. 16 L. Carrizo
  4. 25 B. Cabrera
  5. 6 M. Ortega
  6. 26 R. Herrera
  7. 20 Facundo Gauch
  8. 5 L. Regiardo
  9. 32 S. Solari
  10. 9 M. Cóccaro
  11. 7 W. Mazzantti

Bench: A. Montero, A. Soñora, J. Mattar, O. Salomón, N. Goitea, L. Gómez, J. Russo, W. Núñez, Francisco Scarpeccio, T. Rios, I. Ramírez

Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Gimnasia M. 0 · draws 0 · Newells Old Boys 1.

Gimnasia M.DrawsNewells Old Boys
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-21Newells Old Boys1-0Gimnasia M.Liga Profesional Argentina

Other Clausura - 12 fixtures

Before and after this match