Updated

Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 14

Gimnasia M. vs Platense

· Víctor Legrotaglie, Mendoza· Referee Hernan Mastrangelo

Alin prediction Gimnasia M. to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Gimnasia M.DrawPlatense
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.21 vs 0.89.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Gimnasia M. is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Gimnasia M.2.30 Draw3.10 Platense3.70

Price as of

Expected return at 2.30: -2.7% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Gimnasia M. vs Platense preview

In the Liga Profesional Argentina, Gimnasia M. has a 39% chance to win against Platense, who has a 30% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% probability, suggesting a tight match. Gimnasia M. has expected goals of 1.33, while Platense sits at 0.97, indicating a potential edge for the home side.

However, both teams to score stands at 47%, showing that Platense could find the net. Recent form shows Gimnasia M. with two wins in their last five matches, while Platense has only one win in the same span. This inconsistency could impact the outcome, making it a challenging match for predictions.

Gimnasia M. vs Platense: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGimnasia M.DrawPlatense
Model42%32%26%
Market42%31%26%
Published42%32%26%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.21 vs 0.89.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Gimnasia M. vs Platense odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Gimnasia M., 18 snapshots since 2026-10-14.

Opened 2.49Now 2.21 -0.28
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Gimnasia M.2.492.21-0.28
Draw2.922.98+0.06
Platense3.043.56+0.53

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Gimnasia M. and Platense expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.21Gimnasia M.
0.89Platense
Total expected goals
2.10
Attack rating (Gimnasia M. / Platense)
1.00 / 0.88
Defence rating (Gimnasia M. / Platense)
1.12 / 1.06

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Gimnasia M. vs Platense score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.6% 9.5% 4.8% 1.4% 0.4% 1 13.6% 14.5% 5.8% 1.7% 0.5% 2 9.0% 8.0% 3.5% 1.0% 0.3% 3 3.7% 3.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 1.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Gimnasia M. goals. Columns: Platense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Gimnasia M. vs Platense goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%
Over 1.5 63%
Over 2.5 35%
Over 3.5 16%
Both teams to score
43%
No goals (0–0)
14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Gimnasia M. vs Platense

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Gimnasia M.42%2.36
Draw32%3.16
Platense26%3.83
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.535%2.86
Under 2.565%1.54
Both teams to scoreYes43%2.35
No57%1.74
Double chance1X (Gimnasia M. or draw)74%1.35
12 (either side)68%1.46
X2 (draw or Platense)58%1.73
Handicap -1Gimnasia M. win by 2+19%5.19
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Gimnasia M. and Platense recent form

Gimnasia M. 1W 2D 3L
Platense 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Gimnasia M. at home

Record (W-D-L)
8-3-3
Win rate
57%
Goals for / match
1.29
Goals against / match
0.79
Clean sheets
6 of 14
  • They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Platense away

Record (W-D-L)
3-6-5
Win rate
21%
Goals for / match
0.93
Goals against / match
1.07
Clean sheets
5 of 14
  • They have won 5 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 14 of 29 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Gimnasia M. at home only, Platense away only.

Gimnasia M. vs Platense head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Gimnasia M. 0 · draws 1 · Platense 1.

Gimnasia M.DrawsPlatense
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-12Platense1-1Gimnasia M.Liga Profesional Argentina
2019-02-24Gimnasia M.0-3PlatensePrimera Nacional

Other Clausura - 14 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Gimnasia M. to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Gimnasia M.
Our pick: Gimnasia M. to win 18+ Bet Now