San Lorenzo vs Newells Old Boys preview
In the Liga Profesional Argentina, San Lorenzo faces Newells Old Boys with a 35% chance for each team to win and a 30% chance for a draw. The most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 23%, indicating a low-scoring match. San Lorenzo has an expected goals figure of 0.66, while Newells Old Boys sits slightly higher at 0.84.
Both teams to score has a 29% probability, and Over 2.5 goals stands at just 19%. Recent form shows San Lorenzo with 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, while Newells Old Boys has 3 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.
San Lorenzo vs Newells Old Boys: model vs market
| Source | San Lorenzo | Draw | Newells Old Boys |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 39% | 36% |
| Market | 38% | 34% | 28% |
| Published | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.90, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
San Lorenzo vs Newells Old Boys odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Draw, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Lorenzo | 2.58 | 2.45 | -0.13 |
| Draw | 2.83 | 2.78 | -0.05 |
| Newells Old Boys | 3.00 | 3.30 | +0.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
San Lorenzo and Newells Old Boys expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.51
- Attack rating (San Lorenzo / Newells Old Boys)
- 0.72 / 0.95
- Defence rating (San Lorenzo / Newells Old Boys)
- 0.98 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
San Lorenzo vs Newells Old Boys score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: San Lorenzo goals. Columns: Newells Old Boys goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
San Lorenzo vs Newells Old Boys goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 29%
- No goals (0–0)
- 23%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for San Lorenzo vs Newells Old Boys
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Lorenzo | 35% | 2.87 |
| Draw | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Newells Old Boys | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 19% | 5.19 |
| Under 2.5 | 81% | 1.24 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29% | 3.47 |
| No | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Double chance | 1X (San Lorenzo or draw) | 70% | 1.43 |
| 12 (either side) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| X2 (draw or Newells Old Boys) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | San Lorenzo win by 2+ | 7% | 13.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
San Lorenzo and Newells Old Boys recent form
San Lorenzo
3W 1D 2L
Newells Old Boys
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
San Lorenzo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-5
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 14
- They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 29 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Newells Old Boys away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-7
- Win rate
- 21%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 14
- They have won 7 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: San Lorenzo at home only, Newells Old Boys away only.
San Lorenzo vs Newells Old Boys head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: San Lorenzo 0 · draws 1 · Newells Old Boys 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Newells Old Boys | 0-0 | San Lorenzo | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
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- Rosario Central vs Huracan 2026-10-25
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Before and after this match
- San Lorenzo, previous: Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo prediction
- Newells Old Boys, previous: Newells Old Boys vs Central Cordoba de Santiago: odds and pick