Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin preview
In the upcoming match between Gimnasia L.P. and Sarmiento Junin, the 1X2 probabilities show Gimnasia L.P. at 54%, Sarmiento Junin at 20%, and a draw at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 9% chance. The model suggests a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams to score at 68%.
Gimnasia L.P. has a recent form of W-D-D-D-D-W, while Sarmiento Junin has D-D-W-L-D-W. The expected goals are 1.97 for Gimnasia L.P. and 1.49 for Sarmiento Junin. A potential factor that could affect the outcome is the confidence grade of C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin: model vs market
| Source | Gimnasia L.P. | Draw | Sarmiento Junin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Market | 56% | 26% | 18% |
| Published | 54% | 25% | 20% |
| Edge | -2% | -1% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 1.49.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.68, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Gimnasia L.P., 18 snapshots since 2026-10-14.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia L.P. | 1.80 | 1.66 | -0.14 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.61 | +0.21 |
| Sarmiento Junin | 4.60 | 5.29 | +0.70 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gimnasia L.P. and Sarmiento Junin expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.46
- Attack rating (Gimnasia L.P. / Sarmiento Junin)
- 1.29 / 1.35
- Defence rating (Gimnasia L.P. / Sarmiento Junin)
- 1.23 / 1.32
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gimnasia L.P. goals. Columns: Sarmiento Junin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimnasia L.P. | 54% | 1.84 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Sarmiento Junin | 20% | 4.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.48 |
| No | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gimnasia L.P. or draw) | 80% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Sarmiento Junin) | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gimnasia L.P. win by 2+ | 28% | 3.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gimnasia L.P. and Sarmiento Junin recent form
Gimnasia L.P.
2W 4D 0L
Sarmiento Junin
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gimnasia L.P. at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-4
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.21
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 8 penalties (62%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sarmiento Junin away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-10
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.07
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 14
- They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Gimnasia L.P. at home only, Sarmiento Junin away only.
Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Gimnasia L.P. 3 · draws 5 · Sarmiento Junin 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | Sarmiento Junin | 1-2 | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-10-04 | Sarmiento Junin | 0-1 | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-03-30 | Gimnasia L.P. | 0-0 | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2024-10-18 | Sarmiento Junin | 1-1 | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2023-05-27 | Gimnasia L.P. | 0-0 | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2022-08-28 | Sarmiento Junin | 0-0 | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2022-04-15 | Gimnasia L.P. | 1-3 | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2021-10-03 | Gimnasia L.P. | 0-1 | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2021-05-03 | Sarmiento Junin | 0-0 | Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2017-03-25 | Gimnasia L.P. | 1-0 | Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
- Gimnasia M. vs Platense — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman 2026-10-24
- Banfield vs Lanus — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Talleres Cordoba vs Defensa Y Justicia — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- San Lorenzo v Newells Old Boys — match page 2026-10-24
- Rosario Central vs Huracan 2026-10-25
- Aldosivi vs Belgrano Cordoba — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Independiente v Boca Juniors — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Gimnasia L.P., previous: Huracan v Gimnasia L.P. analysis
- Sarmiento Junin, previous: Sarmiento Junin – Barracas Central, 2026-10-19