Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman preview
In the Liga Profesional Argentina, Tigre faces Atletico Tucuman with a 51% probability of winning compared to 22% for Atletico Tucuman. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs 8% of the time according to our model. Both teams to score has a probability of 57%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 52%.
Tigre's recent form shows a struggle with 6 games without a win, while Atletico Tucuman has a similar trend, with 5 of their last 6 matches ending in draws or losses. The expected goals are close, with Tigre at 1.39 and Atletico Tucuman at 1.35, indicating a competitive match. However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting unpredictability in the outcome.
Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman: model vs market
| Source | Tigre | Draw | Atletico Tucuman |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Market | 55% | 27% | 17% |
| Published | 51% | 28% | 22% |
| Edge | -5% | 0% | +4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Tigre, 19 snapshots since 2026-10-14.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tigre | 2.35 | 1.69 | -0.67 |
| Draw | 2.94 | 3.40 | +0.46 |
| Atletico Tucuman | 3.30 | 5.50 | +2.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tigre and Atletico Tucuman expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.74
- Attack rating (Tigre / Atletico Tucuman)
- 1.03 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Tigre / Atletico Tucuman)
- 1.34 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tigre goals. Columns: Atletico Tucuman goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tigre | 51% | 1.97 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Atletico Tucuman | 22% | 4.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tigre or draw) | 78% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico Tucuman) | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tigre win by 2+ | 18% | 5.64 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Tigre and Atletico Tucuman recent form
Tigre
0W 1D 5L
Atletico Tucuman
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tigre at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-6-3
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.07
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 7 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Atletico Tucuman away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-8
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 0.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.21
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 6 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tigre at home only, Atletico Tucuman away only.
Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Tigre 1 · draws 5 · Atletico Tucuman 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Atletico Tucuman | 0-0 | Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2024-10-08 | Atletico Tucuman | 1-2 | Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2023-05-21 | Tigre | 0-0 | Atletico Tucuman | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2022-08-17 | Tigre | 0-0 | Atletico Tucuman | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2018-09-15 | Atletico Tucuman | 3-0 | Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2018-02-25 | Atletico Tucuman | 0-0 | Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2016-12-20 | Tigre | 0-0 | Atletico Tucuman | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
- Gimnasia L.P. v Sarmiento Junin — match page 2026-10-23
- Gimnasia M. vs Platense — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Banfield vs Lanus — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Talleres Cordoba vs Defensa Y Justicia — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- San Lorenzo v Newells Old Boys — match page 2026-10-24
- Rosario Central vs Huracan 2026-10-25
- Aldosivi vs Belgrano Cordoba — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Independiente v Boca Juniors — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Tigre, previous: Independ. Rivadavia vs Tigre prediction
- Atletico Tucuman, previous: Atletico Tucuman v Rosario Central analysis
- Atletico Tucuman, next: Atletico Tucuman vs Platense: odds and pick