Primera Nacional · Matchday 32

Acassuso vs Ciudad de Bolívar

· La Quema Stadium, Boulogne Sur Mer

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Acassuso to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

17% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AcassusoDrawCiudad de Bolívar

Acassuso vs Ciudad de Bolívar: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAcassusoDrawCiudad de Bolívar
Model47%33%20%
Market41%33%27%
Published42%33%25%
Edge+6%+1%-7%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.19 vs 0.68.
  • The market prices Acassuso below the model: +6.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Acassuso vs Ciudad de Bolívar odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Acassuso, 12 snapshots since 2026-09-28.

Opened 2.28Now 2.25 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Acassuso2.282.25-0.03
Draw2.802.80+0.00
Ciudad de Bolívar3.453.40-0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Acassuso and Ciudad de Bolívar expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.19Acassuso
0.68Ciudad de Bolívar
Total expected goals
1.87
Attack rating (Acassuso / Ciudad de Bolívar)
0.84 / 0.90
Defence rating (Acassuso / Ciudad de Bolívar)
1.07 / 1.23

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Acassuso vs Ciudad de Bolívar score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 16.7% 9.2% 3.6% 0.8% 0.2% 1 17.1% 13.7% 4.2% 1.0% 0.2% 2 10.9% 7.4% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 3 4.3% 2.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 1.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Acassuso goals. Columns: Ciudad de Bolívar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Acassuso vs Ciudad de Bolívar goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 83%
Over 1.5 57%
Over 2.5 29%
Over 3.5 12%
Both teams to score
36%
No goals (0–0)
17%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Acassuso vs Ciudad de Bolívar

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Acassuso42%2.37
Draw33%3.05
Ciudad de Bolívar25%3.98
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.529%3.48
Under 2.571%1.40
Both teams to scoreYes36%2.82
No64%1.55
Double chance1X (Acassuso or draw)75%1.34
12 (either side)67%1.49
X2 (draw or Ciudad de Bolívar)58%1.73
Handicap -1Acassuso win by 2+21%4.67
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Acassuso and Ciudad de Bolívar recent form

Acassuso 2W 1D 3L
Ciudad de Bolívar 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Acassuso at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-3-7
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.87
Goals against / match
0.93
Clean sheets
5 of 15
  • They have won 7 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 17 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Ciudad de Bolívar away

Record (W-D-L)
5-5-5
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.73
Goals against / match
0.87
Clean sheets
7 of 15
  • They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 14 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Acassuso at home only, Ciudad de Bolívar away only.

Acassuso vs Ciudad de Bolívar head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Acassuso 0 · draws 0 · Ciudad de Bolívar 1.

AcassusoDrawsCiudad de Bolívar
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-16Ciudad de Bolívar1-0AcassusoPrimera Nacional

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