Primera Nacional · Matchday 32

San Miguel vs Atletico Mitre

· Estadio Malvinas Argentinas, Buenos Aires

Full time0 – 2

Alin prediction was San Miguel to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

15% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
San MiguelDrawAtletico Mitre

San Miguel vs Atletico Mitre: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSan MiguelDrawAtletico Mitre
Model55%28%16%
Market———
Published55%28%16%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.70.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

San Miguel and Atletico Mitre expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.51San Miguel
0.70Atletico Mitre
Total expected goals
2.20
Attack rating (San Miguel / Atletico Mitre)
0.95 / 0.71
Defence rating (San Miguel / Atletico Mitre)
1.39 / 1.39

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

San Miguel vs Atletico Mitre score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.2% 6.5% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 1 15.5% 12.8% 4.1% 0.9% 0.2% 2 12.5% 8.7% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 3 6.3% 4.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 3.3% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: San Miguel goals. Columns: Atletico Mitre goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

San Miguel vs Atletico Mitre goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 66%
Over 2.5 38%
Over 3.5 18%
Both teams to score
40%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for San Miguel vs Atletico Mitre

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2San Miguel55%1.80
Draw28%3.52
Atletico Mitre16%6.21
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.538%2.64
Under 2.562%1.61
Both teams to scoreYes40%2.48
No60%1.67
Double chance1X (San Miguel or draw)84%1.19
12 (either side)72%1.40
X2 (draw or Atletico Mitre)45%2.25
Handicap -1San Miguel win by 2+30%3.38
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

San Miguel and Atletico Mitre recent form

San Miguel 0W 2D 4L
Atletico Mitre 0W 3D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

San Miguel at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-5-5
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.93
Goals against / match
0.87
Clean sheets
6 of 15
  • They have won 6 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

Atletico Mitre away

Record (W-D-L)
1-8-6
Win rate
7%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
5 of 15
  • They have won 6 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 31 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: San Miguel at home only, Atletico Mitre away only.

San Miguel vs Atletico Mitre head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: San Miguel 0 · draws 0 · Atletico Mitre 1.

San MiguelDrawsAtletico Mitre
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-17Atletico Mitre4-0San MiguelPrimera Nacional

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