Primera Nacional · Matchday 32

Temperley vs Gimnasia Jujuy

· Estadio Alfredo Beranger, Turdera

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Temperley to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
TemperleyDrawGimnasia Jujuy

Temperley vs Gimnasia Jujuy: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceTemperleyDrawGimnasia Jujuy
Model67%20%12%
Market45%31%24%
Published51%28%21%
Edge+22%-10%-12%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.21 vs 0.85.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Temperley below the model: +22.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Temperley vs Gimnasia Jujuy odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Temperley, 10 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 2.00Now 2.04 +0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Temperley2.002.04+0.04
Draw2.923.00+0.08
Gimnasia Jujuy3.903.75-0.15

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Temperley and Gimnasia Jujuy expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.21Temperley
0.85Gimnasia Jujuy
Total expected goals
3.06
Attack rating (Temperley / Gimnasia Jujuy)
1.44 / 1.50
Defence rating (Temperley / Gimnasia Jujuy)
0.80 / 1.33

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Temperley vs Gimnasia Jujuy score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.6% 3.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 1 9.5% 9.7% 3.8% 1.1% 0.3% 2 11.4% 9.7% 4.1% 1.2% 0.3% 3 8.4% 7.2% 3.0% 0.9% 0.2% 4+ 7.8% 6.6% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2%

Rows: Temperley goals. Columns: Gimnasia Jujuy goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Temperley vs Gimnasia Jujuy goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 59%
Over 3.5 37%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Temperley vs Gimnasia Jujuy

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Temperley51%1.98
Draw28%3.57
Gimnasia Jujuy21%4.67
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559%1.70
Under 2.541%2.44
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.93
No48%2.08
Double chance1X (Temperley or draw)79%1.27
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Gimnasia Jujuy)49%2.02
Handicap -1Temperley win by 2+45%2.24
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Temperley and Gimnasia Jujuy recent form

Temperley 4W 1D 1L
Gimnasia Jujuy 2W 4D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Temperley at home

Record (W-D-L)
10-3-2
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.87
Goals against / match
1.13
Clean sheets
5 of 15
  • They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Gimnasia Jujuy away

Record (W-D-L)
4-5-6
Win rate
27%
Goals for / match
1.13
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
1 of 15
  • They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Temperley at home only, Gimnasia Jujuy away only.

Temperley vs Gimnasia Jujuy head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Temperley 2 · draws 0 · Gimnasia Jujuy 3.

TemperleyDrawsGimnasia Jujuy
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-17Gimnasia Jujuy1-0TemperleyPrimera Nacional
2025-07-27Temperley1-0Gimnasia JujuyPrimera Nacional
2025-03-22Gimnasia Jujuy2-0TemperleyPrimera Nacional
2022-06-19Gimnasia Jujuy3-0TemperleyPrimera Nacional
2018-10-06Temperley1-0Gimnasia JujuyPrimera Nacional

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