Primera Nacional · Matchday 32

Deportivo Moron vs All Boys

· Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano, Moron

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Deportivo Moron to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

19% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Deportivo MoronDrawAll Boys

Deportivo Moron vs All Boys: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDeportivo MoronDrawAll Boys
Model54%31%15%
Market48%32%19%
Published50%32%18%
Edge+5%-1%-5%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.56.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Deportivo Moron below the model: +5.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Deportivo Moron vs All Boys odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Deportivo Moron, 12 snapshots since 2026-09-28.

Opened 1.80Now 1.91 +0.11
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Deportivo Moron1.801.91+0.11
Draw2.902.87-0.03
All Boys4.904.75-0.15

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Deportivo Moron and All Boys expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.30Deportivo Moron
0.56All Boys
Total expected goals
1.86
Attack rating (Deportivo Moron / All Boys)
1.55 / 0.63
Defence rating (Deportivo Moron / All Boys)
1.26 / 0.73

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Deportivo Moron vs All Boys score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 16.7% 7.6% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 1 19.1% 12.5% 3.2% 0.6% 0.1% 2 13.1% 7.4% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 3 5.7% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 2.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Deportivo Moron goals. Columns: All Boys goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Deportivo Moron vs All Boys goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 83%
Over 1.5 57%
Over 2.5 28%
Over 3.5 12%
Both teams to score
32%
No goals (0–0)
17%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Deportivo Moron vs All Boys

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Deportivo Moron50%2.01
Draw32%3.13
All Boys18%5.46
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.528%3.51
Under 2.572%1.40
Both teams to scoreYes32%3.10
No68%1.48
Double chance1X (Deportivo Moron or draw)82%1.22
12 (either side)68%1.47
X2 (draw or All Boys)50%1.99
Handicap -1Deportivo Moron win by 2+26%3.81
Push (exactly one goal)27%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Deportivo Moron and All Boys recent form

Deportivo Moron 3W 1D 2L
All Boys 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Deportivo Moron at home

Record (W-D-L)
11-3-1
Win rate
73%
Goals for / match
1.93
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
8 of 15
  • They have won 16 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).

All Boys away

Record (W-D-L)
2-4-9
Win rate
13%
Goals for / match
0.53
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
4 of 15
  • They have won 6 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 14 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 16 of 31 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Moron at home only, All Boys away only.

Deportivo Moron vs All Boys head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Deportivo Moron 4 · draws 2 · All Boys 1.

Deportivo MoronDrawsAll Boys
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-18All Boys1-0Deportivo MoronPrimera Nacional
2023-09-17Deportivo Moron0-0All BoysPrimera Nacional
2023-05-06All Boys0-2Deportivo MoronPrimera Nacional
2022-05-17Deportivo Moron0-0All BoysPrimera Nacional
2021-07-25Deportivo Moron3-0All BoysPrimera Nacional
2021-03-13All Boys1-3Deportivo MoronPrimera Nacional
2018-03-03All Boys0-1Deportivo MoronPrimera Nacional

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