Primera Nacional · Matchday 32

Colon Santa Fe vs CA Estudiantes

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Colon Santa Fe to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

15% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Colon Santa FeDrawCA Estudiantes

Colon Santa Fe vs CA Estudiantes: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceColon Santa FeDrawCA Estudiantes
Model48%31%21%
Market47%31%22%
Published47%31%22%
Edge+1%0%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.78.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Colon Santa Fe vs CA Estudiantes odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Colon Santa Fe, 10 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 1.98Now 1.95 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Colon Santa Fe1.981.95-0.03
Draw2.902.90+0.00
CA Estudiantes4.004.14+0.14

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Colon Santa Fe and CA Estudiantes expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.31Colon Santa Fe
0.78CA Estudiantes
Total expected goals
2.10
Attack rating (Colon Santa Fe / CA Estudiantes)
1.23 / 1.24
Defence rating (Colon Santa Fe / CA Estudiantes)
0.90 / 0.93

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Colon Santa Fe vs CA Estudiantes score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.6% 8.4% 3.8% 1.0% 0.2% 1 14.9% 13.9% 5.0% 1.3% 0.3% 2 10.6% 8.3% 3.3% 0.9% 0.2% 3 4.6% 3.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 2.0% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Colon Santa Fe goals. Columns: CA Estudiantes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Colon Santa Fe vs CA Estudiantes goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%
Over 1.5 63%
Over 2.5 35%
Over 3.5 16%
Both teams to score
41%
No goals (0–0)
14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Colon Santa Fe vs CA Estudiantes

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Colon Santa Fe47%2.13
Draw31%3.19
CA Estudiantes22%4.60
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.535%2.86
Under 2.565%1.54
Both teams to scoreYes41%2.44
No59%1.69
Double chance1X (Colon Santa Fe or draw)78%1.28
12 (either side)69%1.46
X2 (draw or CA Estudiantes)53%1.88
Handicap -1Colon Santa Fe win by 2+23%4.33
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Colon Santa Fe and CA Estudiantes recent form

Colon Santa Fe 2W 1D 3L
CA Estudiantes 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Colon Santa Fe at home

Record (W-D-L)
9-4-2
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
0.53
Clean sheets
9 of 15
  • They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

CA Estudiantes away

Record (W-D-L)
5-4-6
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.73
Goals against / match
0.87
Clean sheets
6 of 15
  • They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Colon Santa Fe at home only, CA Estudiantes away only.

Colon Santa Fe vs CA Estudiantes head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Colon Santa Fe 0 · draws 3 · CA Estudiantes 1.

Colon Santa FeDrawsCA Estudiantes
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-16CA Estudiantes1-1Colon Santa FePrimera Nacional
2025-09-27CA Estudiantes1-0Colon Santa FePrimera Nacional
2025-05-24Colon Santa Fe0-0CA EstudiantesPrimera Nacional
2019-10-17Colon Santa Fe2-2CA EstudiantesCopa Argentina

Other Matchday 32 fixtures