Primera Nacional · Matchday 32

Ferro Carril Oeste vs Deportivo Madryn

· Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry, Buenos Aires

Full time0 – 2

Alin prediction was Ferro Carril Oeste to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Ferro Carril OesteDrawDeportivo Madryn

Ferro Carril Oeste vs Deportivo Madryn: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFerro Carril OesteDrawDeportivo Madryn
Model41%33%26%
Market50%30%21%
Published47%30%22%
Edge-9%+3%+6%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Ferro Carril Oeste vs Deportivo Madryn odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Ferro Carril Oeste, 6 snapshots since 2026-09-30.

Opened 1.95Now 1.85 -0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Ferro Carril Oeste1.951.85-0.10
Draw3.003.10+0.10
Deportivo Madryn4.204.44+0.24

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Ferro Carril Oeste and Deportivo Madryn expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.14Ferro Carril Oeste
0.87Deportivo Madryn
Total expected goals
2.01
Attack rating (Ferro Carril Oeste / Deportivo Madryn)
1.17 / 1.49
Defence rating (Ferro Carril Oeste / Deportivo Madryn)
0.83 / 0.85

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ferro Carril Oeste vs Deportivo Madryn score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.7% 10.3% 5.0% 1.5% 0.4% 1 14.0% 14.6% 5.8% 1.7% 0.4% 2 8.8% 7.6% 3.3% 1.0% 0.2% 3 3.3% 2.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 1.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Ferro Carril Oeste goals. Columns: Deportivo Madryn goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ferro Carril Oeste vs Deportivo Madryn goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%
Over 1.5 61%
Over 2.5 33%
Over 3.5 14%
Both teams to score
41%
No goals (0–0)
15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ferro Carril Oeste vs Deportivo Madryn

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Ferro Carril Oeste47%2.11
Draw30%3.28
Deportivo Madryn22%4.53
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.533%3.07
Under 2.567%1.48
Both teams to scoreYes41%2.45
No59%1.69
Double chance1X (Ferro Carril Oeste or draw)78%1.28
12 (either side)70%1.44
X2 (draw or Deportivo Madryn)53%1.90
Handicap -1Ferro Carril Oeste win by 2+18%5.63
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Ferro Carril Oeste and Deportivo Madryn recent form

Ferro Carril Oeste 3W 3D 0L
Deportivo Madryn 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Ferro Carril Oeste at home

Record (W-D-L)
9-2-4
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
1.13
Goals against / match
0.80
Clean sheets
6 of 15
  • They have won 18 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 15 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Deportivo Madryn away

Record (W-D-L)
4-6-5
Win rate
27%
Goals for / match
1.13
Goals against / match
1.13
Clean sheets
4 of 15
  • They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Ferro Carril Oeste at home only, Deportivo Madryn away only.

Ferro Carril Oeste vs Deportivo Madryn head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Ferro Carril Oeste 2 · draws 2 · Deportivo Madryn 2.

Ferro Carril OesteDrawsDeportivo Madryn
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-17Deportivo Madryn0-1Ferro Carril OestePrimera Nacional
2025-07-19Ferro Carril Oeste1-1Deportivo MadrynPrimera Nacional
2025-03-16Deportivo Madryn1-0Ferro Carril OestePrimera Nacional
2023-07-22Deportivo Madryn1-0Ferro Carril OestePrimera Nacional
2023-03-17Ferro Carril Oeste0-0Deportivo MadrynPrimera Nacional
2022-09-18Deportivo Madryn1-3Ferro Carril OestePrimera Nacional

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