Primera Nacional · Matchday 32

Agropecuario vs Midland

· Ofelia Rosenzuaig, Buenos Aires

Full time0 – 0

Alin prediction was Agropecuario to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AgropecuarioDrawMidland

Agropecuario vs Midland: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAgropecuarioDrawMidland
Model40%32%28%
Market41%31%27%
Published41%31%27%
Edge-1%+1%0%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Agropecuario vs Midland odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Agropecuario, 12 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 2.22Now 2.23 +0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Agropecuario2.222.23+0.01
Draw2.882.95+0.07
Midland3.393.38-0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Agropecuario and Midland expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.20Agropecuario
0.94Midland
Total expected goals
2.14
Attack rating (Agropecuario / Midland)
0.94 / 1.20
Defence rating (Agropecuario / Midland)
1.10 / 1.11

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Agropecuario vs Midland score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.1% 9.8% 5.2% 1.6% 0.5% 1 12.8% 14.6% 6.2% 2.0% 0.6% 2 8.4% 7.9% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3% 3 3.4% 3.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 1.3% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Agropecuario goals. Columns: Midland goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Agropecuario vs Midland goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 64%
Over 2.5 36%
Over 3.5 17%
Both teams to score
44%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Agropecuario vs Midland

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Agropecuario41%2.43
Draw31%3.18
Midland27%3.65
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.536%2.78
Under 2.564%1.56
Both teams to scoreYes44%2.28
No56%1.78
Double chance1X (Agropecuario or draw)73%1.38
12 (either side)69%1.46
X2 (draw or Midland)59%1.70
Handicap -1Agropecuario win by 2+18%5.52
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Agropecuario and Midland recent form

Agropecuario 2W 1D 3L
Midland 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Agropecuario at home

Record (W-D-L)
8-4-3
Win rate
53%
Goals for / match
1.13
Goals against / match
0.60
Clean sheets
9 of 15
  • They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 14 of 31 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 8 penalties (62%).

Midland away

Record (W-D-L)
3-5-7
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.27
Clean sheets
3 of 15
  • They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Agropecuario at home only, Midland away only.

Agropecuario vs Midland head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Agropecuario 0 · draws 0 · Midland 1.

AgropecuarioDrawsMidland
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-17Midland2-0AgropecuarioPrimera Nacional

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