Primera Nacional · Matchday 32

Tristan Suarez vs Quilmes

· Estadio 20 de Octubre, Tristan Suarez

Full time0 – 0

Alin prediction was Tristan Suarez to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

23% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Tristan SuarezDrawQuilmes

Tristan Suarez vs Quilmes: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceTristan SuarezDrawQuilmes
Model61%30%9%
Market43%34%23%
Published47%33%20%
Edge+18%-4%-14%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 0.36.
  • The market prices Tristan Suarez below the model: +18.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Tristan Suarez vs Quilmes odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Tristan Suarez, 10 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 2.20Now 2.14 -0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Tristan Suarez2.202.14-0.06
Draw2.552.72+0.17
Quilmes3.953.90-0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Tristan Suarez and Quilmes expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.34Tristan Suarez
0.36Quilmes
Total expected goals
1.71
Attack rating (Tristan Suarez / Quilmes)
1.10 / 1.06
Defence rating (Tristan Suarez / Quilmes)
0.49 / 1.07

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Tristan Suarez vs Quilmes score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 19.0% 5.7% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 1 23.5% 9.8% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 2 16.4% 6.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 3 7.3% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 3.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Tristan Suarez goals. Columns: Quilmes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Tristan Suarez vs Quilmes goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 81%
Over 1.5 52%
Over 2.5 25%
Over 3.5 9%
Both teams to score
23%
No goals (0–0)
19%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Tristan Suarez vs Quilmes

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Tristan Suarez47%2.11
Draw33%3.05
Quilmes20%5.03
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.525%4.08
Under 2.575%1.32
Both teams to scoreYes23%4.26
No77%1.31
Double chance1X (Tristan Suarez or draw)80%1.25
12 (either side)67%1.49
X2 (draw or Quilmes)53%1.90
Handicap -1Tristan Suarez win by 2+31%3.21
Push (exactly one goal)30%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Tristan Suarez and Quilmes recent form

Tristan Suarez 2W 3D 1L
Quilmes 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Tristan Suarez at home

Record (W-D-L)
8-6-1
Win rate
53%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
0.47
Clean sheets
10 of 15
  • They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 21 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

Quilmes away

Record (W-D-L)
1-4-10
Win rate
7%
Goals for / match
0.73
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
3 of 15
  • They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 16 of 31 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Tristan Suarez at home only, Quilmes away only.

Tristan Suarez vs Quilmes head-to-head

Last 8 meetings: Tristan Suarez 3 · draws 3 · Quilmes 2.

Tristan SuarezDrawsQuilmes
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-17Quilmes0-1Tristan SuarezPrimera Nacional
2025-10-04Quilmes0-1Tristan SuarezPrimera Nacional
2025-05-31Tristan Suarez0-0QuilmesPrimera Nacional
2024-09-01Quilmes0-1Tristan SuarezPrimera Nacional
2024-04-14Tristan Suarez1-3QuilmesPrimera Nacional
2023-09-30Quilmes5-1Tristan SuarezPrimera Nacional
2023-05-21Tristan Suarez0-0QuilmesPrimera Nacional
2022-03-28Tristan Suarez2-2QuilmesPrimera Nacional

Other Matchday 32 fixtures