Primera Nacional · Matchday 32

Chacarita Juniors vs Patronato

· Estadio de Chacarita Juniors, Buenos Aires

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Chacarita Juniors to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Chacarita JuniorsDrawPatronato

Chacarita Juniors vs Patronato: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceChacarita JuniorsDrawPatronato
Model35%34%31%
Market46%31%23%
Published43%32%25%
Edge-12%+3%+8%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Chacarita Juniors vs Patronato odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Chacarita Juniors, 12 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 1.98Now 2.00 +0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Chacarita Juniors1.982.00+0.02
Draw2.883.00+0.12
Patronato3.854.10+0.25

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Chacarita Juniors and Patronato expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.99Chacarita Juniors
0.92Patronato
Total expected goals
1.91
Attack rating (Chacarita Juniors / Patronato)
0.83 / 1.19
Defence rating (Chacarita Juniors / Patronato)
1.09 / 1.05

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Chacarita Juniors vs Patronato score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 16.1% 12.2% 6.3% 1.9% 0.5% 1 13.3% 14.8% 6.2% 1.9% 0.5% 2 7.3% 6.7% 3.1% 0.9% 0.3% 3 2.4% 2.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Chacarita Juniors goals. Columns: Patronato goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Chacarita Juniors vs Patronato goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 84%
Over 1.5 58%
Over 2.5 30%
Over 3.5 13%
Both teams to score
39%
No goals (0–0)
16%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Chacarita Juniors vs Patronato

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Chacarita Juniors43%2.30
Draw32%3.14
Patronato25%4.05
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.530%3.34
Under 2.570%1.43
Both teams to scoreYes39%2.55
No61%1.65
Double chance1X (Chacarita Juniors or draw)75%1.33
12 (either side)68%1.47
X2 (draw or Patronato)57%1.77
Handicap -1Chacarita Juniors win by 2+14%7.34
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Chacarita Juniors and Patronato recent form

Chacarita Juniors 1W 0D 5L
Patronato 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Chacarita Juniors at home

Record (W-D-L)
7-3-5
Win rate
47%
Goals for / match
1.07
Goals against / match
0.73
Clean sheets
7 of 15
  • They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 16 of 31 matches.

Patronato away

Record (W-D-L)
1-9-5
Win rate
7%
Goals for / match
0.47
Goals against / match
1.07
Clean sheets
5 of 15
  • They have won 6 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 15 of 31 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Chacarita Juniors at home only, Patronato away only.

Chacarita Juniors vs Patronato head-to-head

Last 8 meetings: Chacarita Juniors 2 · draws 2 · Patronato 4.

Chacarita JuniorsDrawsPatronato
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-17Patronato2-0Chacarita JuniorsPrimera Nacional
2024-09-28Chacarita Juniors1-0PatronatoPrimera Nacional
2024-05-12Patronato2-0Chacarita JuniorsPrimera Nacional
2018-02-19Patronato3-0Chacarita JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
2015-10-11Patronato6-2Chacarita JuniorsPrimera Nacional
2015-05-30Chacarita Juniors1-1PatronatoPrimera Nacional
2012-06-23Chacarita Juniors3-0PatronatoPrimera Nacional
2012-02-05Patronato0-0Chacarita JuniorsPrimera Nacional

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