Primera Nacional · Matchday 32

Atletico DE Rafaela vs Atlanta

· Estadio Nuevo Monumental, Rafaela

Full time2 – 3

Alin prediction was Atletico DE Rafaela to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

15% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Atletico DE RafaelaDrawAtlanta

Atletico DE Rafaela vs Atlanta: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAtletico DE RafaelaDrawAtlanta
Model42%34%24%
Market35%33%32%
Published37%33%30%
Edge+7%+1%-8%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.12 vs 0.78.
  • The market prices Atletico DE Rafaela below the model: +7.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Atletico DE Rafaela vs Atlanta odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Atletico DE Rafaela, 12 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 2.60Now 2.62 +0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Atletico DE Rafaela2.602.62+0.02
Draw2.662.80+0.14
Atlanta3.002.87-0.13

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Atletico DE Rafaela and Atlanta expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.12Atletico DE Rafaela
0.78Atlanta
Total expected goals
1.90
Attack rating (Atletico DE Rafaela / Atlanta)
1.00 / 0.96
Defence rating (Atletico DE Rafaela / Atlanta)
1.15 / 0.98

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atletico DE Rafaela vs Atlanta score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 16.2% 10.4% 4.6% 1.2% 0.3% 1 15.4% 14.4% 5.1% 1.3% 0.3% 2 9.3% 7.3% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 3 3.5% 2.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 1.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Atletico DE Rafaela goals. Columns: Atlanta goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atletico DE Rafaela vs Atlanta goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 84%
Over 1.5 58%
Over 2.5 30%
Over 3.5 13%
Both teams to score
38%
No goals (0–0)
16%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atletico DE Rafaela vs Atlanta

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Atletico DE Rafaela37%2.71
Draw33%3.02
Atlanta30%3.33
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.530%3.36
Under 2.570%1.42
Both teams to scoreYes38%2.64
No62%1.61
Double chance1X (Atletico DE Rafaela or draw)70%1.43
12 (either side)67%1.49
X2 (draw or Atlanta)63%1.58
Handicap -1Atletico DE Rafaela win by 2+18%5.50
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Atletico DE Rafaela and Atlanta recent form

Atletico DE Rafaela 2W 1D 3L
Atlanta 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Atletico DE Rafaela at home

Record (W-D-L)
10-3-2
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.27
Goals against / match
0.60
Clean sheets
10 of 15
  • They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 15 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 13 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Atlanta away

Record (W-D-L)
6-2-7
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
0.93
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
6 of 15
  • They have won 16 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 15 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico DE Rafaela at home only, Atlanta away only.

Atletico DE Rafaela vs Atlanta head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Atletico DE Rafaela 2 · draws 2 · Atlanta 2.

Atletico DE RafaelaDrawsAtlanta
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-16Atlanta2-0Atletico DE RafaelaPrimera Nacional
2024-10-06Atletico DE Rafaela2-0AtlantaPrimera Nacional
2024-05-19Atlanta2-0Atletico DE RafaelaPrimera Nacional
2023-06-25Atletico DE Rafaela1-0AtlantaPrimera Nacional
2023-02-21Atlanta0-0Atletico DE RafaelaPrimera Nacional
2022-08-22Atlanta0-0Atletico DE RafaelaPrimera Nacional

Other Matchday 32 fixtures