Primera Nacional · Matchday 32

Central Norte vs Racing Cordoba

· Estadio Padre Ernesto Martearena, Salta

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Central Norte to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

20% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Central NorteDrawRacing Cordoba

Central Norte vs Racing Cordoba: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCentral NorteDrawRacing Cordoba
Model47%36%18%
Market———
Published47%36%18%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.06 vs 0.54.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Central Norte and Racing Cordoba expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.06Central Norte
0.54Racing Cordoba
Total expected goals
1.61
Attack rating (Central Norte / Racing Cordoba)
0.67 / 0.96
Defence rating (Central Norte / Racing Cordoba)
0.80 / 1.39

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Central Norte vs Racing Cordoba score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 21.2% 9.7% 3.0% 0.5% 0.1% 1 20.1% 12.8% 3.2% 0.6% 0.1% 2 11.3% 6.2% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 3 4.0% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Central Norte goals. Columns: Racing Cordoba goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Central Norte vs Racing Cordoba goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 79%
Over 1.5 49%
Over 2.5 22%
Over 3.5 8%
Both teams to score
29%
No goals (0–0)
21%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Central Norte vs Racing Cordoba

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Central Norte47%2.14
Draw36%2.80
Racing Cordoba18%5.71
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.522%4.58
Under 2.578%1.28
Both teams to scoreYes29%3.49
No71%1.40
Double chance1X (Central Norte or draw)82%1.21
12 (either side)64%1.56
X2 (draw or Racing Cordoba)53%1.88
Handicap -1Central Norte win by 2+20%5.05
Push (exactly one goal)27%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Central Norte and Racing Cordoba recent form

Central Norte 0W 5D 1L
Racing Cordoba 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Central Norte at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-8-3
Win rate
27%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
0.60
Clean sheets
8 of 15
  • They have won 6 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 16 of 31 matches.

Racing Cordoba away

Record (W-D-L)
1-4-10
Win rate
7%
Goals for / match
0.47
Goals against / match
1.60
Clean sheets
1 of 15
  • They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 13 of 31 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Central Norte at home only, Racing Cordoba away only.

Central Norte vs Racing Cordoba head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Central Norte 2 · draws 2 · Racing Cordoba 6.

Central NorteDrawsRacing Cordoba
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-16Racing Cordoba1-2Central NortePrimera Nacional
2022-10-30Racing Cordoba1-0Central NorteTorneo Federal A
2022-09-18Racing Cordoba1-0Central NorteTorneo Federal A
2022-06-12Central Norte0-1Racing CordobaTorneo Federal A
2021-10-10Racing Cordoba1-1Central NorteTorneo Federal A
2021-07-11Central Norte0-0Racing CordobaTorneo Federal A
2013-04-20Racing Cordoba2-0Central NorteTorneo Federal A
2013-01-31Racing Cordoba3-1Central NorteTorneo Federal A
2012-09-30Central Norte2-0Racing CordobaTorneo Federal A
2012-02-27Racing Cordoba1-0Central NorteTorneo Federal A

Other Matchday 32 fixtures