Primera Nacional · Matchday 32

Chaco For Ever vs Defensores De Belgrano

· Estadio Juan Alberto Garcia, Resistencia

Full time2 – 2

Alin prediction was Chaco For Ever to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

22% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Chaco For EverDrawDefensores De Belgrano

Chaco For Ever vs Defensores De Belgrano: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceChaco For EverDrawDefensores De Belgrano
Model53%34%13%
Market45%32%23%
Published47%33%20%
Edge+8%+2%-9%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.17 vs 0.46.
  • The market prices Chaco For Ever below the model: +7.8 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Chaco For Ever vs Defensores De Belgrano odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Chaco For Ever, 12 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 2.10Now 2.05 -0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Chaco For Ever2.102.05-0.05
Draw2.802.88+0.08
Defensores De Belgrano3.704.06+0.36

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Chaco For Ever and Defensores De Belgrano expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.17Chaco For Ever
0.46Defensores De Belgrano
Total expected goals
1.62
Attack rating (Chaco For Ever / Defensores De Belgrano)
1.06 / 0.92
Defence rating (Chaco For Ever / Defensores De Belgrano)
0.70 / 0.96

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Chaco For Ever vs Defensores De Belgrano score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 20.8% 7.9% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 1 22.0% 11.5% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% 2 13.5% 6.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 3 5.2% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 2.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Chaco For Ever goals. Columns: Defensores De Belgrano goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Chaco For Ever vs Defensores De Belgrano goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 79%
Over 1.5 49%
Over 2.5 22%
Over 3.5 8%
Both teams to score
26%
No goals (0–0)
21%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Chaco For Ever vs Defensores De Belgrano

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Chaco For Ever47%2.12
Draw33%3.07
Defensores De Belgrano20%4.90
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.522%4.49
Under 2.578%1.29
Both teams to scoreYes26%3.81
No74%1.36
Double chance1X (Chaco For Ever or draw)80%1.26
12 (either side)67%1.48
X2 (draw or Defensores De Belgrano)53%1.89
Handicap -1Chaco For Ever win by 2+24%4.14
Push (exactly one goal)29%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Chaco For Ever and Defensores De Belgrano recent form

Chaco For Ever 3W 2D 1L
Defensores De Belgrano 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Chaco For Ever at home

Record (W-D-L)
7-4-4
Win rate
47%
Goals for / match
1.27
Goals against / match
0.80
Clean sheets
7 of 15
  • They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).

Defensores De Belgrano away

Record (W-D-L)
4-4-7
Win rate
27%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
0.87
Clean sheets
7 of 15
  • They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 14 of 31 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Chaco For Ever at home only, Defensores De Belgrano away only.

Chaco For Ever vs Defensores De Belgrano head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Chaco For Ever 3 · draws 3 · Defensores De Belgrano 0.

Chaco For EverDrawsDefensores De Belgrano
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-18Defensores De Belgrano0-0Chaco For EverPrimera Nacional
2025-09-13Defensores De Belgrano0-0Chaco For EverPrimera Nacional
2025-05-13Chaco For Ever1-0Defensores De BelgranoPrimera Nacional
2024-08-11Defensores De Belgrano0-0Chaco For EverPrimera Nacional
2024-03-26Chaco For Ever3-0Defensores De BelgranoPrimera Nacional
2022-08-07Chaco For Ever1-0Defensores De BelgranoPrimera Nacional

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