Primera Nacional · Matchday 32

Club Atlético Güemes vs Colegiales

· Estadio Arturo Jiya Miranda, Santiago del Estero

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Colegiales to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

15% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Club Atlético GüemesDrawColegiales

Club Atlético Güemes vs Colegiales: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceClub Atlético GüemesDrawColegiales
Model16%28%56%
Market27%31%42%
Published24%30%45%
Edge-11%-3%+14%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 0.71.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Colegiales below the model: +13.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Club Atlético Güemes vs Colegiales odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Colegiales, 12 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 2.21Now 2.20 -0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Club Atlético Güemes3.373.40+0.03
Draw2.843.00+0.16
Colegiales2.212.20-0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Club Atlético Güemes and Colegiales expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.71Club Atlético Güemes
1.52Colegiales
Total expected goals
2.23
Attack rating (Club Atlético Güemes / Colegiales)
0.56 / 1.23
Defence rating (Club Atlético Güemes / Colegiales)
1.75 / 1.10

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Club Atlético Güemes vs Colegiales score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.9% 15.2% 12.4% 6.3% 3.3% 1 6.5% 12.8% 8.8% 4.5% 2.4% 2 2.7% 4.1% 3.1% 1.6% 0.8% 3 0.6% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 4+ 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Club Atlético Güemes goals. Columns: Colegiales goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Club Atlético Güemes vs Colegiales goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 66%
Over 2.5 39%
Over 3.5 19%
Both teams to score
41%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Club Atlético Güemes vs Colegiales

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Club Atlético Güemes24%4.09
Draw30%3.32
Colegiales45%2.20
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539%2.60
Under 2.561%1.63
Both teams to scoreYes41%2.45
No59%1.69
Double chance1X (Club Atlético Güemes or draw)55%1.83
12 (either side)70%1.43
X2 (draw or Colegiales)76%1.32
Handicap -1Colegiales win by 2+30%3.36
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Club Atlético Güemes and Colegiales recent form

Club Atlético Güemes 0W 2D 4L
Colegiales 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Club Atlético Güemes at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-3-8
Win rate
27%
Goals for / match
0.80
Goals against / match
1.53
Clean sheets
3 of 15
  • They have won 5 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 31 matches.

Colegiales away

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-11
Win rate
7%
Goals for / match
0.33
Goals against / match
1.47
Clean sheets
4 of 15
  • They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 31 matches.
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Club Atlético Güemes at home only, Colegiales away only.

Club Atlético Güemes vs Colegiales head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Club Atlético Güemes 1 · draws 0 · Colegiales 2.

Club Atlético GüemesDrawsColegiales
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-16Colegiales4-1Club Atlético GüemesPrimera Nacional
2025-08-31Club Atlético Güemes1-0ColegialesPrimera Nacional
2025-04-26Colegiales1-0Club Atlético GüemesPrimera Nacional

Other Matchday 32 fixtures