Primera Nacional · Matchday 32

Nueva Chicago vs Deportivo Maipu

· Estadio Nueva Chicago, Buenos Aires

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Nueva Chicago to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

15% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Nueva ChicagoDrawDeportivo Maipu

Nueva Chicago vs Deportivo Maipu: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNueva ChicagoDrawDeportivo Maipu
Model29%40%31%
Market38%34%29%
Published35%35%29%
Edge-9%+6%+2%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Nueva Chicago vs Deportivo Maipu odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Nueva Chicago, 14 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 2.20Now 2.45 +0.25
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Nueva Chicago2.202.45+0.25
Draw2.852.75-0.10
Deportivo Maipu3.403.20-0.20

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Nueva Chicago and Deportivo Maipu expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.71Nueva Chicago
0.74Deportivo Maipu
Total expected goals
1.45
Attack rating (Nueva Chicago / Deportivo Maipu)
0.68 / 1.10
Defence rating (Nueva Chicago / Deportivo Maipu)
0.94 / 0.91

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Nueva Chicago vs Deportivo Maipu score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 24.8% 16.2% 6.4% 1.6% 0.3% 1 15.4% 13.5% 4.5% 1.1% 0.2% 2 5.9% 4.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 3 1.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Nueva Chicago goals. Columns: Deportivo Maipu goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Nueva Chicago vs Deportivo Maipu goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 75%
Over 1.5 44%
Over 2.5 18%
Over 3.5 6%
Both teams to score
28%
No goals (0–0)
25%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Nueva Chicago vs Deportivo Maipu

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Nueva Chicago35%2.82
Draw35%2.84
Deportivo Maipu29%3.41
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.518%5.63
Under 2.582%1.22
Both teams to scoreYes28%3.61
No72%1.38
Double chance1X (Nueva Chicago or draw)71%1.42
12 (either side)65%1.54
X2 (draw or Deportivo Maipu)65%1.55
Handicap -1Nueva Chicago win by 2+9%11.27
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Nueva Chicago and Deportivo Maipu recent form

Nueva Chicago 2W 1D 3L
Deportivo Maipu 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Nueva Chicago at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-8-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.07
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
7 of 15
  • They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 16 of 31 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Deportivo Maipu away

Record (W-D-L)
3-4-8
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.27
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
2 of 15
  • They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Nueva Chicago at home only, Deportivo Maipu away only.

Nueva Chicago vs Deportivo Maipu head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Nueva Chicago 1 · draws 0 · Deportivo Maipu 3.

Nueva ChicagoDrawsDeportivo Maipu
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-17Deportivo Maipu1-0Nueva ChicagoPrimera Nacional
2022-09-25Deportivo Maipu1-0Nueva ChicagoPrimera Nacional
2021-10-11Deportivo Maipu0-2Nueva ChicagoPrimera Nacional
2021-06-17Nueva Chicago1-2Deportivo MaipuPrimera Nacional

Other Matchday 32 fixtures