Primera Nacional · Matchday 32

San Martin S.J. vs Almagro

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was San Martin S.J. to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

15% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
San Martin S.J.DrawAlmagro

San Martin S.J. vs Almagro: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSan Martin S.J.DrawAlmagro
Model62%25%13%
Market57%27%16%
Published58%27%15%
Edge+5%-2%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.67.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices San Martin S.J. below the model: +5.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

San Martin S.J. vs Almagro odds movement

Median bookmaker price on San Martin S.J., 12 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 1.56Now 1.62 +0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
San Martin S.J.1.561.62+0.06
Draw3.403.40+0.00
Almagro6.005.75-0.25

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

San Martin S.J. and Almagro expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.75San Martin S.J.
0.67Almagro
Total expected goals
2.42
Attack rating (San Martin S.J. / Almagro)
1.10 / 0.97
Defence rating (San Martin S.J. / Almagro)
0.98 / 1.38

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

San Martin S.J. vs Almagro score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.0% 4.9% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 1 14.5% 11.5% 3.5% 0.8% 0.1% 2 13.6% 9.1% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 3 7.9% 5.3% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 5.2% 3.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0%

Rows: San Martin S.J. goals. Columns: Almagro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

San Martin S.J. vs Almagro goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 44%
Over 3.5 23%
Both teams to score
41%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for San Martin S.J. vs Almagro

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2San Martin S.J.58%1.72
Draw27%3.77
Almagro15%6.58
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544%2.30
Under 2.556%1.77
Both teams to scoreYes41%2.42
No59%1.70
Double chance1X (San Martin S.J. or draw)85%1.18
12 (either side)73%1.36
X2 (draw or Almagro)42%2.40
Handicap -1San Martin S.J. win by 2+37%2.72
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

San Martin S.J. and Almagro recent form

San Martin S.J. 3W 1D 2L
Almagro 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

San Martin S.J. at home

Record (W-D-L)
8-5-2
Win rate
53%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
0.73
Clean sheets
6 of 15
  • They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

Almagro away

Record (W-D-L)
3-4-8
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
1.53
Clean sheets
3 of 15
  • They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 13 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).

League matches this season before kick-off: San Martin S.J. at home only, Almagro away only.

San Martin S.J. vs Almagro head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: San Martin S.J. 4 · draws 1 · Almagro 1.

San Martin S.J.DrawsAlmagro
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-17Almagro1-2San Martin S.J.Primera Nacional
2023-09-20Almagro0-3San Martin S.J.Primera Nacional
2023-04-30San Martin S.J.3-0AlmagroPrimera Nacional
2022-05-14Almagro1-0San Martin S.J.Primera Nacional
2021-09-17San Martin S.J.1-1AlmagroPrimera Nacional
2021-05-09Almagro0-1San Martin S.J.Primera Nacional

Other Matchday 32 fixtures