Primera Nacional · Matchday 32

San Martin Tucuman vs Gimnasia Y Tiro

· Estadio La Ciudadela, Tucuman

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was San Martin Tucuman to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
San Martin TucumanDrawGimnasia Y Tiro

San Martin Tucuman vs Gimnasia Y Tiro: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSan Martin TucumanDrawGimnasia Y Tiro
Model36%31%33%
Market53%30%17%
Published49%30%21%
Edge-17%+1%+16%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

San Martin Tucuman vs Gimnasia Y Tiro odds movement

Median bookmaker price on San Martin Tucuman, 12 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 1.92Now 1.74 -0.18
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
San Martin Tucuman1.921.74-0.18
Draw2.903.12+0.22
Gimnasia Y Tiro4.255.30+1.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

San Martin Tucuman and Gimnasia Y Tiro expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.20San Martin Tucuman
1.15Gimnasia Y Tiro
Total expected goals
2.35
Attack rating (San Martin Tucuman / Gimnasia Y Tiro)
1.46 / 1.09
Defence rating (San Martin Tucuman / Gimnasia Y Tiro)
1.49 / 0.72

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

San Martin Tucuman vs Gimnasia Y Tiro score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.8% 9.6% 6.3% 2.4% 0.9% 1 10.1% 14.5% 7.6% 2.9% 1.1% 2 6.9% 7.9% 4.6% 1.7% 0.6% 3 2.8% 3.2% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3% 4+ 1.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: San Martin Tucuman goals. Columns: Gimnasia Y Tiro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

San Martin Tucuman vs Gimnasia Y Tiro goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 69%
Over 2.5 42%
Over 3.5 21%
Both teams to score
49%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for San Martin Tucuman vs Gimnasia Y Tiro

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2San Martin Tucuman49%2.05
Draw30%3.35
Gimnasia Y Tiro21%4.68
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542%2.39
Under 2.558%1.72
Both teams to scoreYes49%2.03
No51%1.97
Double chance1X (San Martin Tucuman or draw)79%1.27
12 (either side)70%1.42
X2 (draw or Gimnasia Y Tiro)51%1.95
Handicap -1San Martin Tucuman win by 2+16%6.28
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

San Martin Tucuman and Gimnasia Y Tiro recent form

San Martin Tucuman 2W 2D 2L
Gimnasia Y Tiro 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

San Martin Tucuman at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-8-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
0.73
Clean sheets
7 of 15
  • They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Gimnasia Y Tiro away

Record (W-D-L)
5-3-7
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
3 of 15
  • They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: San Martin Tucuman at home only, Gimnasia Y Tiro away only.

San Martin Tucuman vs Gimnasia Y Tiro head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: San Martin Tucuman 5 · draws 2 · Gimnasia Y Tiro 3.

San Martin TucumanDrawsGimnasia Y Tiro
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-17Gimnasia Y Tiro1-0San Martin TucumanPrimera Nacional
2025-07-26Gimnasia Y Tiro2-0San Martin TucumanPrimera Nacional
2025-03-23San Martin Tucuman1-0Gimnasia Y TiroPrimera Nacional
2015-10-03San Martin Tucuman0-2Gimnasia Y TiroTorneo Federal A
2015-06-07San Martin Tucuman3-0Gimnasia Y TiroTorneo Federal A
2015-04-05Gimnasia Y Tiro0-2San Martin TucumanTorneo Federal A
2014-10-26San Martin Tucuman1-1Gimnasia Y TiroTorneo Federal A
2014-09-20Gimnasia Y Tiro0-0San Martin TucumanTorneo Federal A
2014-03-09Gimnasia Y Tiro0-1San Martin TucumanTorneo Federal A
2013-10-30San Martin Tucuman1-0Gimnasia Y TiroTorneo Federal A

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