Primera Nacional · Matchday 32

San Telmo vs Almirante Brown

· Estadio Osvaldo Baletto, Dock Sud

Full time3 – 2

Alin prediction was The draw

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 0

26% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
San TelmoDrawAlmirante Brown

San Telmo vs Almirante Brown: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSan TelmoDrawAlmirante Brown
Model31%41%28%
Market34%34%32%
Published33%35%31%
Edge-3%+7%-4%
  • The market prices the draw below the model: +7.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

San Telmo vs Almirante Brown odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Draw, 12 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 2.69Now 2.75 +0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
San Telmo2.802.71-0.09
Draw2.692.75+0.06
Almirante Brown2.812.87+0.06

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

San Telmo and Almirante Brown expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.73San Telmo
0.67Almirante Brown
Total expected goals
1.39
Attack rating (San Telmo / Almirante Brown)
0.95 / 0.84
Defence rating (San Telmo / Almirante Brown)
1.13 / 0.66

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

San Telmo vs Almirante Brown score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 26.1% 15.4% 5.5% 1.2% 0.2% 1 16.8% 13.2% 4.0% 0.9% 0.2% 2 6.5% 4.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 3 1.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: San Telmo goals. Columns: Almirante Brown goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

San Telmo vs Almirante Brown goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 74%
Over 1.5 42%
Over 2.5 16%
Over 3.5 5%
Both teams to score
26%
No goals (0–0)
26%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for San Telmo vs Almirante Brown

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2San Telmo33%2.99
Draw35%2.82
Almirante Brown31%3.21
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.516%6.08
Under 2.584%1.20
Both teams to scoreYes26%3.80
No74%1.36
Double chance1X (San Telmo or draw)69%1.45
12 (either side)65%1.55
X2 (draw or Almirante Brown)67%1.50
Handicap -1San Telmo win by 2+10%10.19
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

San Telmo and Almirante Brown recent form

San Telmo 3W 1D 2L
Almirante Brown 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

San Telmo at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-4-6
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.93
Goals against / match
1.07
Clean sheets
7 of 15
  • They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 15 of 31 matches.

Almirante Brown away

Record (W-D-L)
3-6-6
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
0.53
Goals against / match
0.73
Clean sheets
8 of 15
  • They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 18 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 14 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: San Telmo at home only, Almirante Brown away only.

San Telmo vs Almirante Brown head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: San Telmo 1 · draws 4 · Almirante Brown 5.

San TelmoDrawsAlmirante Brown
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-16Almirante Brown0-0San TelmoPrimera Nacional
2025-09-08Almirante Brown1-0San TelmoPrimera Nacional
2025-05-03San Telmo0-1Almirante BrownPrimera Nacional
2024-10-05San Telmo0-1Almirante BrownPrimera Nacional
2024-05-20Almirante Brown0-0San TelmoPrimera Nacional
2023-06-10San Telmo3-1Almirante BrownPrimera Nacional
2023-02-05Almirante Brown1-0San TelmoPrimera Nacional
2022-04-03Almirante Brown1-1San TelmoPrimera Nacional
2020-02-29San Telmo0-0Almirante BrownPrimera B Metropolitana
2019-09-14Almirante Brown1-0San TelmoPrimera B Metropolitana

Other Matchday 32 fixtures