Austria Vienna (Am) vs Sturm Graz II preview
Austria Vienna (Am) has a 59% chance to win against Sturm Graz II, with a predicted scoreline of 2-1 at 8%. The model suggests a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 81% and both teams to score at 76%. Austria Vienna (Am) has an expected goals figure of 2.68, while Sturm Graz II stands at 1.68.
However, recent form shows Austria Vienna (Am) with mixed results, having drawn and lost in their last six matches. Sturm Graz II's form is also inconsistent, with only one win in their last six games. These factors could influence the outcome, making it possible for the match to deviate from the predicted scoreline.
Austria Vienna (Am) vs Sturm Graz II: model vs market
| Source | Austria Vienna (Am) | Draw | Sturm Graz II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 19% | 19% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 62% | 19% | 19% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.67 vs 1.49.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Austria Vienna (Am) and Sturm Graz II expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.16
- Attack rating (Austria Vienna (Am) / Sturm Graz II)
- 1.17 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Austria Vienna (Am) / Sturm Graz II)
- 1.12 / 1.52
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Austria Vienna (Am) vs Sturm Graz II score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Austria Vienna (Am) goals. Columns: Sturm Graz II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Austria Vienna (Am) vs Sturm Graz II goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Austria Vienna (Am) vs Sturm Graz II
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 62% | 1.61 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.34 | |
| Sturm Graz II | 19% | 5.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78% | 1.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | 4.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.37 |
| No | 27% | 3.67 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Austria Vienna (Am) or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Sturm Graz II) | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Austria Vienna (Am) win by 2+ | 42% | 2.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Austria Vienna (Am) and Sturm Graz II recent form
Austria Vienna (Am)
3W 1D 2L
Sturm Graz II
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Austria Vienna (Am) at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 52% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sturm Graz II away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 3.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Austria Vienna (Am) at home only, Sturm Graz II away only.
Austria Vienna (Am) vs Sturm Graz II head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Austria Vienna (Am) 2 · draws 0 · Sturm Graz II 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 0-1 | Sturm Graz II | 2. Liga |
| 2025-09-20 | Sturm Graz II | 1-2 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 2. Liga |
| 2023-04-28 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 0-1 | Sturm Graz II | 2. Liga |
| 2022-09-03 | Sturm Graz II | 1-2 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 2. Liga |
| 2021-07-16 | Sturm Graz II | 3-1 | Austria Vienna (Am) | Friendlies Clubs |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- SV Kapfenberg vs SKN ST. Polten — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- SKU Amstetten vs Rapid Wien II 2026-10-23
- First Vienna vs Floridsdorfer AC — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- WSPG Wels vs Voitsberg 2026-10-23
- Austria Salzburg vs FC BW Linz 2026-10-23
- Admira Wacker v Wacker Innsbruck — match page 2026-10-24
- FC Liefering vs Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Austria Vienna (Am), previous: Austria Vienna (Am) v WSPG Wels analysis
- Sturm Graz II, previous: Sturm Graz II – SV Kapfenberg, 2026-10-18