SK Beveren vs Habay-la-Neuve Prediction & Betting Tips 16/10/2026

SK Beveren vs Habay-la-Neuve preview

In the Belgium Cup fixture between SK Beveren and Habay-la-Neuve, the 1X2 probabilities show SK Beveren at 71%, while Habay-la-Neuve sits at 13%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance of occurring. The expected goals for SK Beveren is 1.49, compared to 1.32 for Habay-la-Neuve.

While SK Beveren has a strong probability of winning, their recent form includes three losses in their last six matches. Habay-la-Neuve, on the other hand, has drawn their last two games and won one of their last four. This inconsistency could impact the match outcome, making it possible for Habay-la-Neuve to challenge SK Beveren more than the numbers suggest.

SK Beveren vs Habay-la-Neuve: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	SK Beveren	Draw	Habay-la-Neuve
Model	40%	27%	32%
Market	83%	11%	5%
Published	73%	15%	12%
Edge	-43%	+16%	+27%

Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.16, recorded 2026-10-16 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.

SK Beveren vs Habay-la-Neuve odds movement

Median bookmaker price on SK Beveren, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-15.

Opened 1.14Now 1.10 -0.04

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
SK Beveren	1.14	1.10	-0.04
Draw	7.25	8.00	+0.75
Habay-la-Neuve	14.50	18.00	+3.50

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

SK Beveren and Habay-la-Neuve expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.49SK Beveren

1.32Habay-la-Neuve

Total expected goals: 2.81
Attack rating (SK Beveren / Habay-la-Neuve): 0.87 / 0.95
Defence rating (SK Beveren / Habay-la-Neuve): 0.86 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

SK Beveren vs Habay-la-Neuve score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.2% 6.8% 5.2% 2.3% 1.0% 1 7.8% 13.0% 7.8% 3.4% 1.5% 2 6.7% 8.8% 5.8% 2.6% 1.1% 3 3.3% 4.4% 2.9% 1.3% 0.6% 4+ 1.7% 2.3% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3%

Rows: SK Beveren goals. Columns: Habay-la-Neuve goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

SK Beveren vs Habay-la-Neuve goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 78%

Over 2.5 53%

Over 3.5 31%

Both teams to score: 58%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for SK Beveren vs Habay-la-Neuve

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	SK Beveren	73%	1.38
	Draw	15%	6.46
	Habay-la-Neuve	12%	8.39
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	53%	1.88
	Under 2.5	47%	2.14
Both teams to score	Yes	58%	1.73
	No	42%	2.38
Double chance	1X (SK Beveren or draw)	88%	1.14
	12 (either side)	85%	1.18
	X2 (draw or Habay-la-Neuve)	27%	3.65
Handicap -1	SK Beveren win by 2+	20%	4.98
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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